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THE CHAT ROOMS
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'Market may rally to 4250-4500 after July 2''The fear of July 2 is overwhelming. I am not bullish on the introduction of rolling settlement,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.KALYANARAMAN : In view of the continuous heavy borrowings by our central govt.,do you expect a scenario wherein govt wont be able to pay salaries to its staff (say in the next 1 year) (which will affect share market)? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not a big follower of Central Government finances, but it is apparent to me that we are heading towards a debt trap. However, government power to borrow and print money means they can always postpone the problem to the next government. KALYANARAMAN : in the case of IFCI, why cant they sell the assets of the defaulters and raise the cash, which will improve the profits and shareholder value ?..has IFCI sold all the assets or are they selling or keeping quiet ? can you enlighten ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That should be they way to do it. However this is India. Nothing gets done. I definitely feel taxpayers should not bail out IFCI. However it will happen. We don't beleive in the market forces KALYANARAMAN : Some analysts are comparing our cement prices with that in mexico etc...are our cement prices cheap as compared to that in america or japan (before and after taking into account the fact that the income levels (and therfore the purchasing power of the people) in our country are much lower than there? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Mexico is not too much richer than India. They sold the 2nd largest bank to Citigroup for $12.5 billion, the second largest insurance co had a marketvalue of $2 billion. KALYANARAMAN : In India, the cost of a tv or vcr or mobile phone or a car is more than that in america or gulf countries,though the income levels here are much lower...do you think this is a basic fundamental problem in our economy that needs correction ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That is mainly due to duty and excise structure. TV costs have come down to international levels. NileshTadge : How is future of satyam computer 3 to 6 months from now. how high will its stock go Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have a small trading position in it. Market may rally ahead of July 2 and it could move up then. Long-term it remains a suspect. koshal : i am holding substantial no. of hll shares. though i would not want to sell them but i would like to earn something more than dividends. i hve read about albm and bless but could not fully get the hang of it. after 2 july can i lend these shares. please also let me know the safest way to lend these shares even if the returns are a bit lower. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : At the current time, do not lend the shares. They are in legal limbo. Depositories like Stock Holding are stopping this. Check back for an update. calbear : Good Afternoon Damani, What could be the target for DSQ Biotech in the next Quarter? Thanks! Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not sure it is meaningful to set price targets every quarter. Its mostly an excercise in wasting time. koshal : what do you feel of the vst offer? should i accept it or can i get a better price Ramesh Shrichand Damani : 150 SEEMS a good price but we might see a fresh bid from BAT. Its unclear. I still own some shares. rajesh : technically do u see a further bottoming out of the markets Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I think it has made a technical bottom. Fear of July 2 is overwhelming. Hence market will move up after July 2. IT will be a technical rally, nothing more. rup : Dear sir, I m holding 500 shares of niit. What should i do either hold or sell it and will it be benefited after 2nd july Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would hold it at current levels. No major impact on it after July 2. rajesh : if the market is to rally after 2 jul where do u think infosys will reach Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Maybe 4250-4500 level. Let's hope they can do growth of 40% plus. That would help. I still own some infy. rup : if i have to make some new buy what are your tips. what about global tele. i m holding very big quntity of vatsa finance corportion what are your comments on this. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not too excited by the propsects of Global or vatsa. koshal : what do you feel will give better returns in the one-two year period. cummins or tata power. what is the future of the power sector Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is a fact that without power we will have no digital revolution. I prefer Tata Power at the current time. theking : do you think the current market justifies the valuations of new private sector banks? do you think they should be higher? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Financial transactions have to grow. Hence HDFC Bank looks like a good bet from a 2-3 year time frame. balan : hi ramesh ..what are the 20 stocks which are likely to get in to options trading on july 2? why is SEBI not released the list still? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are working on it i guess. My estimate in INFY, SATYAM, Lever, ITC, Reliance, Reliance Petro, Tisco will be among the group. theking : what do you think is the fate of impending IPOs of telecom companies? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : People have long memories. I think Bharti may have some trouble. Remember they privatised at such low rates a few years ago. sammie : What you feel about the pending IPO's of media companies like Nimbus, UTV etc will they HAPPEN if yes when can media stocks come back 2 forefront? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The IPO Market seems dead to me. It will take time but generally the sector will do well. koshal : last week you had recommended indian hotels and abb alsthom power to me. do you think i should wait till around 25 june to pick them up or should i buy them now. indian hotels looks good but alsthom has a very large equity and is a turnaround. what to do time frame 2 years Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Indian Hotels is cum Rs 10 dividend. So buy it before it goes ex-dividend. Altsom could wait. I have both shares. theking : what do you think will help the FM reduce the fiscal deficit in the long term. PC had actually wiped out the deficit but incurred a deficit due to interest charges. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not sure about PC. Massive disinvestment and reduction of bureacracy. Not by raising taxes. rup : I'm sorry to ask a personal question. r u from lohana caste? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No. mehta : sir, what do u think about the market has this bottomed out Ramesh Shrichand Damani : A technical bottom. Too much fear about July 2. harry : hi ramesh, i am a first year student of BMS and in my summer jobs i,have done a project on a company in the name of "saw pipes ltd"I,do not deal in shares at all but i,wish to have your views abt this company Ramesh Shrichand Damani : What conclusions did you come to? srinivas : ADLABS a good company to by it at level of rs. 65 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Its a good company but lets wait for some results. balan : ramesh..some of the leading stocks have got short position on the larger side..now do you expect a sharp short covering to take place in the coming weeks prior to jul2? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No short selling is allowed. They will probably be delivered. prashk : Mr. Damani, I am an investor living in Europe. I used to invest in Indian markets. But after this repeated 'stock fixing' etc done by many brokers and banks in India I have lost my faith in the Indian market. I feel investing in Europe or US is better still there is much more control and it is more transparent than in India. what is your opinion? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am sorry for the problems you have had. A few bad apples spoils everyone's image. However if you look around, there are many principled brokers and merchant bankers.You must invest if you believe in the growth of India and not out of a sense of patriotism. Righ now conditions are not good in the market. Chetan : Mr Ramesh Why don't you all Brokers induct some professionals and polish your image?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I agree. It needs to be done. whatever : Ramesh, what would happen to the trading volumes post July 2? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They will dip to 750-1000 crs on BSE ykk : you had promised a share with no alcohol or meat dealings last week. What should be my pick? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like the courier business, hence I own Blue Dart. Chetan : Whatever After July 2nd its the game of professional FII's and not for ppl like damanis/Rathis/Parekhs LOL Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That would be sad. Capital markets require a diversity of players. kannan : Are you a one of director sugal & damani group? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Nope. MOHAN : ARE YOU SURE ALSTOM POWER WILL BE AVAILBLE BELOW 25? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : How can we be sure? bittoo : Whats the opnion on digital and fujitsu? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Both look good. Fujitsu may benefit from recruiting in Japan. RPG position is not known though. harry : what conclusions i have come to is firstly as per survey by time magazine petrolium is the most precious commodity for the 21st century and in india transportation of gas & petrolium products is done through tankers which are very hazardous in all respects and not cost effective. so the potential for pipeline laying in india upto 2002 is abt 25000 kms in various different projects and very ltd companies are mfg these pipes hence very big potential for these cos Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I respectfully will suggest WATER will be more precious. vsmurthy : what is the outlook for vsnl.hold/sell/buy Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would hold it. I own a very small quantity. Chetan : "Whatever" Ionly hope thatFII's will not repeat Hong Kong Story here with their "$"power.In case it happens then Sinha willtake some drastic measures to Boost Capital markets to Squueze them out. Lets seee what have they planned for now ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It will be fascinating. If they take a negative view while rolling has been introduced, market will be in deep trouble. Sudhir : Have you read rich dad poor dad.. Any views? FYI JPMorgan says must read for millionaires Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I missed it. Will try to read it. Chetan : Ramesh:a general Questionabout all MNC's ? how far youfeelis the threat from their subsidaries?In thatcase I love our Desistockslike HDFC/Infosys.... Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is very real. New Delhi is sleeping this one out. Obviously domestic stocks are better from that point of view madhu : hello sir, what is your advice for a new person who is interested in try earning some money with minimum investment. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It cant be done. If you want thrill go to the races. Nikhil : What is your view on MTNL, MOSEAR BAER. Should somebody buy now. at 129, 288 levels. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : None of the above excite me. shruti : Will Zee tele ever rise to/near to its earlier high Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Very unlikely over the next three years. shaukat : What is your opinion on VisualSoft? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market is expecting bad results. Maybe a fall. I own some shares and have taken a beating in it. If company can produce flat to slightly lower results as management is saying it will rise. hardik : Hello Sir.. People say that after the Rolling Settlement is settled, market look will be bullish?? Should I invest now to get the best returns in August??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market may have a technical rally, I am not bullish on introduction of rolling settlments. IT will cause hurt. madhu : sir, the new entrants should pick up the public issue first or the shares from the market ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would try a good quality company in which you have some understanding. IPO or secondary is okay. suhasd : When Infosys posted 150% rise in profits, its stock ruled over 7000/-. now when it says they can hardly maintain 30% growth, shouldn't the stock crash to below 2000/- ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It could still go down. Market gives it some respect. Maybe Mr Murthy will find a way to grow. At 30%, the stock is coming down. vikasbanga : what excite u sir ?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : At this time IT Enabled. vikasbanga : Mr. Damani what is ur pick for the future Ramesh Shrichand Damani : See earlier transcripts. Chetan : Ramesh : I don't understand one thing why HCL-Technologies trades at such a low P/E compared to Infy though they have Highest OPM & they started off their business investing heavily in Marketing Infrastructure? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Mgmt credibilty is the higest with INFY. Market pays a PE for that. Also better long-term track record. KetanParekh : ramesh bhai, how do u see the market post 2nd july. will we be allowed to short sell then Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes we could do intra-day short selling. Market may rally after July 2nd for a few weeks. rajeev : Sir, What small investors should do in the future i.e. after July 2 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not sure what they will be doing but i am thinking of praying hard. vikasbanga : what about HFCL ??? should one buy it at 130-140 Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Why ? What is the logic? rahi : what are your expectations with options and futures trading Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Slow start. It will take time but it will pick up. sanjayghraval : give us tips to buy Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Sorry, but i avoid giving tips. monkey : your advise on ongc Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Buy it for yield not for disinvestment. pareek : what is future of industries involved in manufacturing explosive materials? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You mean Noble Explochem and ICI. NO great idea. Sudhir : Sir, Are you planning to write autobiography?? ;-) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : That would be ego boosting but who would read it.?? pethkar : Dear Damani, A very direct question: If I give you a LAKH and insisit tht you should invest in either Wipro or INFY what is your choice? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i would buy INFY on that condition. Though I am reducing my holdingcurrently. shruti : i bought HFCL at 1500. will i recover Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I doubt it. INVESTOR : what is your view on Indian economy? if it is not great then why is such action in old economy stocks? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Withdrawal symptoms. : what is the main reason for the tech stocks falling down? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : poor growth in the next year. parth : Rameshbhai, what is your view of Kale & RPL ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Kale looks interesting at a price. I like their airline softwarepackage. RPL is expensive for me. pethkar : DeAR dAMANI,wITH SO MUCH IN STORE FOR BIO TECHNOLOGY AMD PATENT IN MEDICINES WHY ARE NOT PHARMA STOCKS BULLISH (eXCEPT rEDDYS LAB)? sUN, gLAXO ETC Ramesh Shrichand Damani : cipla looks good. Market is not yet focussing on pharma. Glaxo results were poor. monkey : which shares are it enable Ramesh Shrichand Damani : look at earlier transcripts deshpande : Do you track "TISCO" scrip,if so inspite of impressive results why market is still not pushing up the scrip, inspite of one of the cheapest steel producers in the world. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Steel prices are at 20 years low. They are making money by cutting costs. This cannot continue. parth : which PSU looks to give lucrative return? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like and own Bharat Electronics and CMC. sharan : do you track jupiter orga by any chance?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not really. Results were encouraging though. INVESTOR : how have been the volumes in international markets on introduction of derivatives? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Slow. One exchange takes over. And then volumes pcik up. They trade 4 times the volume of the cash market. schaschi : Should we close all regional stock exchnages since there is no relevance of these stock exchanges. Can U tell us sir what is the per day turnover of BSE and NSE thorugh V_SAT (sub dealers). Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market forces will compel them to close or merge. I am not sure of the VSAT turnover. In NSE though all terminals are VSAT.> Govind : AS A SUB BROKER I ASK YOU THAT WHAT IS OUR FUTURE AFTER 2 JULY IN YOUR VIEW Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It is grim I think. That is my honest view. People have to learn to take delivery and not speculate. schaschi : What would be the trend after July 2 at regional level since small investors are not well informed and newspapers do little in these areas. Don't U think market would suffer most after that period Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I feel it will give a short, but powerful rally post July2nd. B group shares will also do well. However the rally will fizzle. rajujiwani : Dear ramesh - Dont u think giving this type of information & parading experts after experts in different channels & making General investers invest money u all r just looting hard earned money of general public Ramesh Shrichand Damani : raju, people should take responsibility for one's own actions. That is what being an adult is. Make informed choices.That is the way free markets work. Do you want Govt telling you what is good all day? That would be dull and boring. Think Air India. ezhil : What do you think will be the way to stop the stock scams? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Better regulation. bksahoo : Two share certificates could not be transfered due sgn misnatch 3-4 years back. I forgot to send it again that time. can it be done now. what is the procedure. pl. advise. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Write to the company and ask. They will suggest procedure. sharan : when do you think we will find the next harshad/ketan in the market again? do you still feel there loopholes to exploit or SEBI has plugged all the holes?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Scamsters will always find loop holes. We need to be alert. rajeev : as a day trader what should I do after July 2nd Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I think margin trading will come back in a few months. Be careful till then. Thanks for joining and have a good day. Bye. bulldozer : Tata infomedia is headed for 200+..true or false? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : In the short-run difficult. I also own some anil : What do u think that and when LIC housing finance should be bought and at what levels? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It looks okay to me. I trade in it Sahu : I have 100 Silverline averaging @125. What should I do? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Do not average. I would sell in a rally.
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