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'Market may be vulnerable to a few more shocks''We could become a tech superpower in 10 years if our government does a good job,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.
Harshad : Are you there Mr. Damani cmcheniyer : hi damani i am one of the research analyst in markethappy to caht with youwhat is your thinking about the market condition in the near mid term and long term? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Looks vulnerable to shocks in the short run. Players are deeply pessimistic. cmcheniyer : hello damani what do think about the aluminum industry Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it will do well in India next year due to rising energy costs in the Unites States and Brazil. Look for ones with captive power cmcheniyer : which industry would be the darling of the current year Ramesh Shrichand Damani : IT-enabled, some FMCG and PSU if you believe they will be disinvested lakerfan : do u fell ketan being released will impact the market?will the bull run continue? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : No major impact. Ketan would not be active pank : Is it the right time to buy shares? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : market may be vulnerable to a few more shocks raj : reomend the pharma shares to be buy for investment of for 2 month with appreciation of 20% Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it's hard to give specific recommendations like that shelley : do you see the KP-10 stocks rising again? yesterday at least many media stocks hit the circuit breaker.. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i think the post-ketan era has begun much like we had a post-harshad era Kajol : HELLO SIR i LOST MONEY 50%I bIRLA ADVANTAGE AND ALLIANCE EQTY FUND .SHALL I BUY MORE TO AVERAGE OR BUY INCOME FUND Ramesh Shrichand Damani : buy an index fund woods : why are you bullish on FMCG? topline growth is terrible and imports are eating market share. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : and worse they are buying cos out. However Nestle is doing well. High return on capital bsenseiyer : among fmcg can you list some hot bulls Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i dont know about hot but i like colgate and nestle vj : how is Engineers india ltd poised for in future Ramesh Shrichand Damani : if VSNL gives a Rs 100 dividend so will Engineers India. You could get Rs 50 before privatisation. I own some of it. Starsec : what's the future of day trader after July 2nd? will brokers provide finance? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : they may after some time. Kajol : BUT SIR IF INDEX FUND WILL APPRICIATE THEN DEFINITLY dIVERSIFIED GROWTH FUND WILL, SO WHICH GROWTH FUND IS GOOD NOW Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i though you were burnt by the stock pickers. If so index fund is the best Starsec : do u think a shift to b1 & b2 group will happen after July 2nd?If yes isn't that bad? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it would be bad news because some of the stocks are of poor quality bsenseiyer : there is a rumour that satyam will touch 260 in this settlemnet is it true Ramesh Shrichand Damani : how can anyone predict such things Govind1 : Do you think TV channels like CNBC India & NDTV can be believed before any Investment is made? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : you must use your own head. It is imperative. Do yourown home work. Trust but verify savi : HELLO SIR! DO U THINK THE DOT COM FUNDS WILL EVER RECOVER? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Remote chance balmeet : hello sir,what's the reason of heavy discounting of shares of infotech companies like satyam,infosyis etc. in india as well as in nasdaq Ramesh Shrichand Damani : that is what happens when a bubble bursts Starsec : do you see an increase in brokerage rates after 2nd July due to a lot for paper work for the brokers daily? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i think it will happen Kajol : I WANT TO KNOW WHICH IS GOOD, CREST, KALE,RS SOFT,ONWARD,MELSTAR,JAIN TV,MRO ,ORIENT INFO,VJIL,SQL STAR Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i bought some Onward. Kale and Melstar could be good bsenseiyer : why the MD OF TV 18 SOLD 7000 RECENTLYANY NEWS THERE Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i think he had bought some previously KALYANRAM : DO YOU EXPECT COLLAPSE OF OUR BANKS (INCLUDING HDFC BANK ) AND INDIAN ECONOMY,WITH MANY BORROWERS NOT REPAYING THIER LOANS,WITH MANY STATE GOVTS BANKRUPT AND CENTRAL GOVT BORROWING HEAVILY TO MEET EXPENDITURE (INSTEAD OF FOR INVESTMENT ) AND THE INCOME FROM THESE LOAN DEFAULTERS ALSO SET TO FALL (LOAN DEFAULTERS GENERATE INCOME FOR GOVT WHEN THEY STAY IN 5 STAR HOTEL ETC..) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : The financial condition of our government is not in great shape. It worries me no end. Particularly institutions like IFCI. Bail-outs keep happening. However rather than let them fail the govt will keep taxing us Govind1 : The Nasdaq has recovered & The Dow is at a good level. Do you think the Nasdaq has bottomed out & the US markets are out of recession?If yes do you think it is a positive development for India? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It should be good news. However local players are deeply hurt savi : RIGHT NOW, I HAVE INVESTED IN A .COM MUTUAL FUND, I'VE LOST 60%. SHOULD I CLOSE THIS NOW? PL. ADVICE! Ramesh Shrichand Damani : yes. Transfer to an index fund Starsec : Sir,if the public bought zee,hfcl,dsq,glbal at 4 figure rates,then who the hell sold them at that price? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Public sold and bought it back.Then they got stuck as prices kept falling. eserve : Mr. Damani - What to do in companies like NIIT where I have lost 50 % ? I am prepared to hold for 5 years. Will I get deccent returns ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like its education business. It has no growth but a good future TechBull : What do you feel about Geometric Software? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like it. I have a small position in it. sajish : Which is the best way to analyze and know about the stock market properly? How can people learn about stock markets? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i would start by reading a few newspapers savi : DO U THINK THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME FOR A NETWORKING SOFTWARE COMPANY TO GO PUBLIC? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not the best of time. I would wait vsm : shld i sell or hold vsnl? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hold eserve : Will there be buyback in Colgate and Gillette ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i have no news bsenseiyer : HAVE YOU ANY IDEA ABOUT LIC HOUSING FINANCE Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Dividend looks interesting. Cheap compared to HDFC KALYANRAM : WHEN A BORROWER TAKES A LOAN AND (SAY) IMPORT A MACHINERY,GOVT GETS CUSTOMS REVENUE..WHEN THIS BORROWER BUYS A CAR,THE CAR DEALER MAKES MONEY AND GOVT GETS TAXES...ALL THESE THINGS ARE GOOD ONLY WHEN THE BORROWER REPAYS THE LOAN...SINCE IN MOST OF THE CASES ,THE BORROWERS DONT REPAY,THE INCOME GENERATED IN THE ECONOMY IS ILLUSION...IN THIS SCENARIO,CANT WE CALL OUR ECONOMY,A BUBBLE WHICH IS GOING TO BURST ANYTIME,WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR SHARE MARKET Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Your points are good. Govts recover money ill-spent through taxation. Rajapandian : Can I sell US64 Units now ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would do it bsenseiyer : AS YOU R BEARISH WHAT WOULD BE THE SUPPORT OR BOTTOM LEVEL Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Market could test its april lows rahul : dear sir wat do u think of concentrated portfolio having exposure in tech sector i mean mutual fund Ramesh Shrichand Damani : it depends on the market and your outlook. In 99 tech overweight was the place to be sajish : Is reading few newspapers as i m a engg graduate or should I read some books about stocks, please tell me sir as i'm a beginner and want to know much about the stock market as in future i want to start a frim of my own in production, suggest me how should i go about the entire matter? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Read both and learn to think for yourself. Good luck with your firm. Can't give that kind of advice bhansali : whats your take on Relpetro Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Looks a bit expensive too me kajol1 : BUT SIR ,VERY FEW INDEX FUND AND SIZE ALSO SMALL,PLEASE REC A GOOD INDEX FUND Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not sure of some names.Just find one tracking the Sensex or Nifty bsenseiyer : HI DAMANI WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE MATURITY OF OUR MARKETS Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Most markets are driven by psychology eserve : Mr. Damani - I know you believe in the Indian Tech Story, Which are your top picks ? NIIT & Eserve ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i will ask my analyst mahesh for a top list navin : dear rameshji, can u suggest few stocks which can give dividend yield of about 11-12% and some growth also Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Coromandel Fertiliser, Blue Star bsenseiyer : HOW MANY YEAR WILL TAKE TO REACH TJHE PAR VALUE FOR THE ICICI PRU TECH FUNDS AS THEY BOUGHT HEAVILY AT THE HISTORICAL PEAK Ramesh Shrichand Damani : maybe never? vsm : should i hold or repurchase Unit 64 units Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would return it to UTI at current prices monkeyman : Mr Damani, what effect did MSCI downgrade have on the stock market? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It will have an impact close to November when passive funds rebalance Starsec : isn't UTI just rotating money & making no profits????? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are making some bad investments in my opinion yogesh : dear sir do you belive that market will cross its top bottom in coming future Ramesh Shrichand Damani : rephrase the question can : On line trading on ICICIdirect.com is safe to trade Ramesh Shrichand Damani : For individual investors, sure RajuSB : What is impact of forign market Trubanlce on Indian Ceconomy .. espically Tech sector.. What is Vision after 10 years .. will is be same as now other manufactruing industry are ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Quite bad. In 10 years if our govt does a good job we could become a tech superpower vishwanath : Sir,I am holding 8100 units in Allaince new millennium . This i Subscribed during initial allotment. What i should do to get my money back?please advise. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : get into an index fund monkeyman : Mr Damani, in your opinion, how will the ban on badla and introduction of rolling settlement impact the stick market? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Liquidity will be sucked out. It could lead to volatality in the short run eserve : How bad is the US 64 scene ? Is it better to exit ex-dividend ? When will it become NAV based ? Does the small investor has any recourse then ? This could become a big mess ! Sir - What is your view ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i would get out at current prices Swaminathan : do you think IT-enabled services, especially Call centers have a bright future in India? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Yes. Very bright. navin : i want to know about some stocks which can yield 11-12 % dividend and some growth in long run Ramesh Shrichand Damani : that combination is hard. 5% plus growth is easier. rajiv : when the market is going up no body bothers now each and every one is behind bears why Ramesh Shrichand Damani : You wonder why? RamyaManojMenon : Recently., the NIIT CEO has went on record that the Education market is flattening. However., the SSI Chairman has said that its not true. What do you think of the Software Education industry in view of the conflicting views expressed by the industry chieftains.? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i think a slowdown is on. Over 2-3 years though education business will boom. vivekshetty : would apprecaite your comments on TATA POWER , BPCL, HPCL Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Tata power looks the best chandana : Damani ji...plz answer...wht do U think...Home Trade can do to change lives in India??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I have no idea about how it can change lives Swaminathan : which are the good call center companies in India who are planning to come out with an IPO? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Tata Telecom supplies equipment. Pure call service cos are not listed yet BHENDI : IS BADLA BEFETIAL FOR SMALL INVESTOR Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Absolutely sarajesh : damaniji,pls answer my questionis shyam tele a good buy at current levels Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not too hot on it RamyaManojMenon : , Thanks for your view on Edu industry. Just one more pl., Which one do you think will boom.. Longterm course market or short term course market..? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : short term over the internet type. We will be educated and re-educated in the future satya : , Shold I Hold or Sale HDFC at this level 650-700??? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i would hold it rajiv : what is the future of vst ind. should one hold, sell Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Hold it bsenseiyer : AMONG LT AND HIND LEVER WHICH IS BEST FRO A YEAR Ramesh Shrichand Damani : in the short run (6 months) L&T. Long run Lever is class aadmi : Damaniji please tell me about the technology stockes after slow down in US market..do you still insist in buying Infy or wipro? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i don't insist my friend. Market for tech remains vulnerable mehta : Ramesh, would the rupee depreciation have an impact on FII invstments? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : A modest depreciation means heavy inflow because stocks are cheaper. However a sharp one means outflow Anant : do u like karur vysya bank? anu targets Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I like it. It could give a stake to someone at high prices TakeIT : Do you expect the market to soar since Ketan parikh is released on Bail ? I already see the market recovering... Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Don't count on it. can : Sir, kindly advise wether to sell and hold 1. ICICI Tech Fund 2. Kothari Int Opp. fund 3. Sun F& C emerging tech fund. I have invested huge money in these funds Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i can not give specific advise like that. you will appreciate eserve : Is there ANY other company in India which is in the HLL league ? ( Quality-wise ?) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Not really. It is a class apart. ITC is good but mgmt quality is not as good as Levers KALYANRAM : you have told to hold hdfc...does it mean that hdfc is providing for NPAs correctly when real estate is in doldrums and our govts cannot spend further because they are bankrupt and these will affect hdfc very badly ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : they are well managed and prudent vinu : What is the opinion about mphasi bfl software.should i sell or hold Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I would hold it savi : Sir, dont u think our law sets free some miscreants like harshad mehta? dont u think we should have more stringent laws? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Fairer implemenatition of law. The rich get away. Justice is not done to all moneytalks : There is a rumor that share market will go down on or after June 2nd b'cos of SEBI's decision. UR comments please Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It could, market could go down for a variety of reasons Anant : GAIL is trading at 4 p/e . is it good for long term Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Sure good business. I hope it is privatised suryaputra : sir i want to know about why sebi taken this decesssion( i mean they changed trading conditions from july) Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Better ask them eserve : How were your experiences with Jim Rogers ? I read his article that he bought Indian Hotels. Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I admire him a lot. Mainly for his thinking ability and how he lives his life navin : how is idbi doing, what kind of results u expect? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : I am not very hot on it mj : INFY BONUS WHEN RAMESH DO REPLY Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Absolutely no idea mehta : Ramesh, PLEASE ANSWER MY QUESTION. Are the FII investments likely to continue?? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It will continue unless a downgrading happens which is possible. navin : suggest some good dividend stocks may be about 11-12% Ramesh Shrichand Damani : i suggested two earlier. Blue Star and Coromandel Fert eserve : Sir - Dont you think ITC has pushed its pricing power too far ? @ Rs. 2.75 per stick for GF Filter Kings, you get cheaper Phoren brands ! Why dont they get more generous with their dividends rather than squander their FCF on lousy investments ? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : Correct. They should give it back toshareholders. RAMESH : What dividend can we expect from UTI's Us 64 scheme Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It may be lower this year navin : but bluestar and coromander r already up., suggest something whicn can still yield that results Ramesh Shrichand Damani : They are at 10% yield at current prices Anant : privatise GAIL - has any group this much money? Ramesh Shrichand Damani : It's a big world RAMESH : Which is good financial institution in india which is reliable Ramesh Shrichand Damani : If you find one let me know. Thanks all for joining in. Have a prosperous week Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST. ALSO SEE:
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