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April 30, 2002
Stock Talk

'I see no great growth from the IT majors'

'I am not bullish on them over the next quarter. Tech stocks like Satyam, Infosys will under perform,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.

Samie : Hi Sir, I have bought 100 shares of Macmillan at Rs. 328. Now it's trading around Rs.300 and is falling everyday. Please advise me what to do. Should I hold it or sell a part of it to make myself a bit safe. What do you think are the future prospects of Macmillan.
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining in Lets start. I beleive the results of Mcmillan were flat. It is a bit hard to gauge performance Q to Q. Look at the big picture and I am convinced this is a high quality IT-enabled Play. I remain bullish and invested in it.

Ganesh : Ramesh, Should I hold/sell BEML? What is outlook of this script? Some says it is expensive. What is your opinion?
Ramesh S Damani : BEML has a market cap of Rs 150 crs. It is very cheap. If disinvested co will soar. Current working is good. I own it

baracuda : let us analyse in brief the results of the cos that you have been recomending here on this chat show namely abb ,bel, concor geometric,and gati and htmt. having done this please recomend whether we should hold buy or sell the above at current market prices.
Ramesh S Damani : thanks. All the results have been good. I have sold some HTMT to book profit. The rest look okay to me

Samrat : hi rd, macmillan is giving jitters. I bought some last week but price has gone down, what to do
Ramesh S Damani : learn the value of long term investing. You need to have conviction in what you buy

BASANTMAHESHWARI :  TVS Last year it had sales of 250 crores+, with a N.P barely in 2 digits. What kind of a Np can one expect this year after taking into consideration their association with Verifone?
Ramesh S Damani : i am buying it for the future not the past. Company can leverage its global skills in manufacturing.

ksbsuresh : Mr.Damani,can you suggest some software to keep track of shares.
Ramesh S Damani : Geometric, e-serve, Mcmillan are some good ones to look at

ritu : What's your view on NIIT? The company is still confident of achieving an operating profit of 115 cr. and they say that situation is improving and their margins are also improving. Is it a safe investment bet at current levels?
Ramesh S Damani : i am not impressed with management ability to respond to change. I would stay away

shantiekamabaram : Kindly inform the future of geometric after its hammering recently.
Ramesh S Damani : its up 12 fold from its September low. I see no problem in the correction.

ritu : Dear Mr. Damani, can we have your comments on RBI's credit policy? Is SBI a good buy at current market prices, given the fact that its results, which would be exemplary, are already due?
Ramesh S Damani : SBI is a good buy. i own some

arvind : is HTMT is overvalued at 330 and what are your opinion on balaji block deal
Ramesh S Damani : Ekta is doing a great job. I think she is one to watch

yahooo : hi ramesh, long time since I have chatted with u , I have been reading the transcripts though , so still bullish on your PSU pets and IT-enabled. How about neyvelli ligite? I saw it go from 7 to 25 now in 20s
Ramesh S Damani : PSU Stocks are getting expensive. I have booked profits in the like of Shipping and some in Engineers India

baracuda : IDC and Gartner reports suggest that ITES and BPO will be huge a growth of something like 19% compouded annually for the next 2-3yrs such reports were put out during the IT services and dot com boom. We all know what happened. Do you believe in these reports and if so do you still recommend e-serve, HTMT, TVSE Geometric at current rates
Ramesh S Damani : i am a big believer in the BPO growth. I believe they will surprise people.

shortfuse : To my mind Graphite India seems to as attractive as Gati. I would say even more attractive because 75% of their turnover comes from exports. Have you studied this scrip?
Ramesh S Damani : different business. Graphite management is not the blue chip kind and they are linked to steel.

malarraj : Dear RD. Please tell us your view on ORIENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES. I am stuck up in the share around Rs.600/- (Qty.2000). Should I hold it or get out of it and book losses. Please advice me and let me know the probable switch over scrip. Thanks.
Ramesh S Damani : i am not actively following this script.

sunil : Today in CNBC u were of the view that market looks bearish for the month of May and even your friend Rakesh on Sunday on TV was of the view that now onwards market look bearish - pl. guide
Ramesh S Damani : Rakesh is bullish. I am not bearish just cautious. Great to pick good stocks.

ritu : Dear Damani Sir, in the current downtrend pls. suggest three bargains going cheap around current prices. Pls. help me, I have just started learning the investment game from u!
Ramesh S Damani : mcmillan is a good stock to buy if you are patient and have a 1-2 year view.

euphoria : dear rd I got carried away by the euphoria and bought 5000 geometric delivery at 620. What is the projection u see in 3 months from now of this stock
Ramesh S Damani : learn discipline in the market

Chatto : Please comment on IT&T, Max, Escorts, Mcdowell & Gati. I am holding all of them at this moment.
Ramesh S Damani : they all look okay to me. I hold them all

MICKY : SIR, IN YOUR OPINION FOR HOW LONG WILL THE MKT IGNORE MTNL. MKT CAP - 8500 CR, PROFIT 1400 CR. BHARTI - IPO MKT CAP - 8500 CR, A COMPANY IN LOSSES. ALSO GIVEN THE FACT, THAT SUNIL MITTAL HAS GONE ON RECORD, THAT THEY WOULD BE KEEN TO TAKE OVER MTNL.
Ramesh S Damani : good point. Market however is keen on doing that

mystocks : sir, can I invest all my hard earned money on TVS electronics. This is the second time I'm asking u sir. Can u kindly answer
Ramesh S Damani : that would not be sensible. Have 2-3 stocks in your portfolio. Have some diversification

sunilsharma : sir your view on Rolta company is expanding its Mumbai office and opening offices in Europe/Canada and 30% revenue growth projection and domestic revenue also to spurt given the big defense budget your vies why scrip is rising is any operator active
Ramesh S Damani : i recently visited them. The co is doing work similar to Infotech Ent. However b/s is bloated at 60crs. They need to focus on GIS and not things like Rolta NEt. In a IT Boom they will probably do well. I own a small amt

shortfuse : My question earlier on compudyne .Can you reply please. Thank you
Ramesh S Damani : i have not seen the results yet

shashi : Mr. Damani, there has been lots of talk about the IT stocks being still overvalued. Do you buy this or do think that it is the right time to put some money in the top IT stocks
Ramesh S Damani : i see no great growth from the majors. Hence I am not bullish on them over the next quarter.;

renu : what is the target of Shipping Corporation 85 or 185
Ramesh S Damani : 85 looks like a good target.

cm : Mr Damani with every IT co deciding on a BPO entry wont it lead to pricing pressures and lower margins?
Ramesh S Damani : not for the leaders.

TAURUS14 : Mr.Rameshji read this and answer ,India total forex reserve is $55 BILLION AND AOL first quarter loss if more then $ 55 billion...any comment
Ramesh S Damani : that is a interesting comparision. GE market cap was 500 Billion $. All india market cap is $120 billion or so. We are a emerging market. However that spells opportunity

smallguy : hello sir how r u? pl. advice on karur vysya & laksvilas banks
Ramesh S Damani : I like karur. They are doing well

Ashok Kumar : do you think tech stocks like Satyam, Infosys would be a good option to buy now?
Ramesh S Damani : Bit too early . They will under perform

Ashok Kumar : can you suggest me some good stocks to cash on for 3 moths/6months time line by not putting too many eggs in a basket
Ramesh S Damani : market looks a bit tired. I would hold on. NO great new ideas at this time

ritu : Dear Damani sir, can we have your comments on RBI's credit policy? Is SBI a good buy at current market prices, given the fact that its results, which would be exemplary, are already due?
Ramesh S Damani : RBI policy was ho hum. I like SBI. Company is cheap.

raj : Ramesh-ji: What should I do with my dead investment in Premier Automobile?
Ramesh S Damani : i am sorry but it looks like a write off

Munjal : Dear Mr. Damani , you've given us unique insights into many IT-enabled ,PSU and buyback stories. Can you enlighten us on buyback prospects of Rayban, which seem to go up and down. I have a large holding, bought at 51 rs. What would you advise me?
Ramesh S Damani : wait for SEBI decision, However on a fundamental level I am not bullish on it. CO equity is bloated and they have not performed

paranoid : Dear Ramesh, Till what value should I hold Geometric ?
Ramesh S Damani : its market cap is only 300 crs so this could be a big co. Hold it,.

KJ : Will ONGC give 700% dividend this year?
Ramesh S Damani : i doubt it.

tigershark : bel has launched a host of new non-defense products like smart cards ,solar road signals motherboards with latest Intel chips many of didn't know that bel could do all this many thought they made guns. hey here is a great co going cheap with a order book of 4000crs .your comments please on investment in bel.
Ramesh S Damani : i agree. I have been saying it for years. Only recently market has begun to take notice. It is a unique co.

ayanshah : Sir I am buying 50 to 100 shares of Gati around 70 rs.. Everyday..As volumes are low and I can't afford buying huge...Am I doing the correct thing??? Also No change in your view of IT&T crossing 81 rs.( its IPO price) in current up trend.(I have bought them around 56 rs. and is currently around 60 rs.)
Ramesh S Damani : i would hold both of them. They look okay to me

sanghvikalpesh : how does Mcdowell's look to u at this level?
Ramesh S Damani : very cheap. Its a great bet

Kishore : One basic question....Is it right time to invest money in shares now, or do we need to wait for some more time?
Ramesh S Damani : if you have a good idea buy the stock. It's no use trying to time the market. Mostly foolish actually

sunilsharma : sir any new investment idea likes of serve, geometric, cmc, bel, tvs
Ramesh S Damani : nothing new

ayanshah : Rameshji ABB stock is not showing any great Buying Interest even after good results...Also Any view on SKF Bearings and Dabur??
Ramesh S Damani : i like ABB. Its day will come. Dabur will do well with the FMCG sector. SKF no call.

Munjal : Mr. Damani , the retail stocks like Titan , Trent , Pantaloon , Apollo Hospital have risen a lot in last 3 months ; have corrected as well. If these are good stories, which of these could be outstanding?
Ramesh S Damani : Apollo looks the best over time. Next would be Titan. I own both

BASANTMAHESHWARI : Ramesh what is your view on MASTEK? Co has promised 250%+ growth with Cy EPS around Rs 35 - 40 and a MCAP of Rs 500 crores
Ramesh S Damani : I am just disappointed with the co's past mistakes and not ready to give them a second chance so soon.

gun : dear rd ,knowing mr vijay mallya's life style and extravagant splurging how does one justify investing in mcdowell...pls comment...thanks
Ramesh S Damani : that is part of the person. However remember look at the market cap. You are buying 25%of the Indian spirits market for 250 crs. Its all in the price

renu : Vajpayee or You are my SONIA keh do naa who is your right choice for the stock Market
Ramesh S Damani : we need a shourie or chidambaram. not the other two

bulbul : do you think e-serve still has steam left
Ramesh S Damani : yes

aman : how does one gets an insight on the happening of the market
Ramesh S Damani : Lots of reading, lifetime of watching -- both are critical.

KetanAdmirer : hi ramesh, what's your take on small media company sai television. it is a profit making company which has come to rs.10 and has a high of rs.76.
Ramesh S Damani : i don't follow that-so no opinion

ritu : sir, my question on Federal bank? i bought it at 107. pls. suggest a switch! i'm asking for the third time!
Ramesh S Damani : i would keep Federal. Value is being unlocked in the sector. If you want to change take a look at mcmillan

Vishy : I am interested in a good formal course on Stock investment. Could you guide me on this?
Ramesh S Damani : I think the BSE has regular classes. Call them for info

tiru : Sir i am from hyderabad, this is about FOURTH GENERATION. this company is into medical transcription which is doing very well did you heard about this company?
Ramesh S Damani : no I have not. do they have a web site?

Sanky : I'm new to stock market... Suppose I've invested Rs. 100 today in a stock... when should I sell it ideally...i.e. should I sell it at 120 Or 130 ...etc
Ramesh S Damani : no. learn market cap. Number of shares * Price= Market cap. When the number makes no sense is one way to sell stocks. Read some books. IT is a art

bigbull : neyveli lignite is the best long time power/PSU play do u agree
Ramesh S Damani : it offers good value

ssharidev : I am novice to stock market. I am a holder of ESOP shares of EIL. Disinvestment is talked about. When should I sell to fetch a good price?
Ramesh S Damani : i am selling some EIL. However it could fetch a handsome price on disinvestment

Munjal : Rameshji , a rough calculation of stocks that you hold (totalled from your answers on particular stocks ) is 25 already. Probably you own much more. How do you keep track of all your holdings? Would you advise us to have large diversified portfolios of 20/ 25 stocks?
Ramesh S Damani : Not really. However since I sit before a terminal I trade more than I should. However ideally you should put 10% in any idea. Harder done then said though

sanghvikalpesh : what ur target and holding period for Mcdowell's?
Ramesh S Damani : till value is unlocked. Could be 5 years.

ayanshah : Currently Gati is having market cap around 60 Cr....What you think company's fair market cap??
Ramesh S Damani : its not fair. Over time this co can have a 500 cr market cap

ramesh : Rameshji, Do you have any idea about Amritanjan which is listed on Madras? Is it a good buy at 75 - 80 levels?
Ramesh S Damani : not followed it recently. Numbers looks good.

atalbiharivajpayee : i love u Ramesh S Damani; i love u Ramesh S Damani
Ramesh S Damani : how about sonia?

ppp : Ramesh ji, Any confirmation on open offer or buy back from EServe?
Ramesh S Damani : i don't believe they will make an open offer. Just buy from the market to raise stakes

ketanparikh : sir can u tell me where is the 2250 cr HFCL collected in private placements. Is SEBI or DCA sleeping?
Ramesh S Damani : that is a good question.

sagar1 : dear rd, u haven't replied any of my Qs, how is mindteck ? why do u think macmilan is good when there growth is flat/
Ramesh S Damani : we must be patient. Co's are not made in a quarter. They are well positioned to take advantage of the huge growth I see ahead.

topy : Sir, Time frame for holding BMEL? PLEASE ANSWER!!
Ramesh S Damani : another year

ritu : sir, i bought some HTMT around 310! would u suggest me a switchover to geometric or e-serve? Pls. answer and oblige!
Ramesh S Damani : i would consider it.

aryan : i m following u since long. u r very experienced and good stock picker. but do u always know when the market has either hit the top or bottom. If yes, what indications do u look for?
Ramesh S Damani : it comes from experience. Public is in full command and giving tips. Your peon gives you tips. All signs of a top

DK : Dear Rameshji, Pl advice me is this a right time to invest in Index heavy weight, e.g.HLL, ITC, RIL or to invest in midcap companies like Gati, Appolo Hospital etc. Kindly advice.
Ramesh S Damani : i think midcaps are doing better. They offer better visibility

ritu : Sir, don't u think that with a topline of 300 crs. and a market cap of merely 600 crs., E-serve is still a good buy around current market prices? N Jayakumar says that the company can still be a multibagger at current prices! What's your opinion? Congrats for spotting them so young!!!!!!!
Ramesh S Damani : i agree with him. Its a great opportunity

Maulik : RAMESH JI, I HAVE POSTED ABOUT 10 QUESTIONS BUT IN VAIN. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THEM BEING ANSWERED IF I CHANGE MY NAME TO RITU
Ramesh S Damani : sorry maulik. sometimes I don't get all the Q

harip : Ramesh, Please answer this q? At the current levels, which scrip you prefer for investment? e-serve, geometric or macmillon. Please name one only. Thanks in advance.
Ramesh S Damani : if only one I would say e-serve

ritu : sir, one of my close friends is very senior employee at Iflex! Can I get some benefit (if he wishes so)in terms of some preferential allotment etc? I mean can u suggest some way I can ask him to help me in buying its shares?
Ramesh S Damani : i doubt it. Thanks all for joining. See you next week. Bye

Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST. Money

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