The production of major agricultural crops is likely to drop by 12 per cent for 2002-03, reflecting an adverse impact of poor monsoon, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.

Though the total foodgrains production has been revised upwards to 184.06 million tonnes in the third advance estimates, the output for FY-03 would be 13.6 per cent lower compared to 2001-02, CMIE said in its monthly economic review.

The non-food crops are estimated to show a steeper drop of 9.5 per cent in 2002-03. Earlier, it was pegged at 8.9 per cent, it said.

The combined effect of revision in food and non-food crop estimates would be negligible on the overall fall in rate of agriculture production, CMIE said. Food grains consist of cereals such as rice, wheat, jowar, bajra and maize as well as pulses. Important nonfood crops are cotton, jute and tobacco.

Given the severity of drought in 2002, it was unlikely that livestock, forestry and fishing would record any healthy growth rate in FY-03, it added.

The agriculture was likely to show a decline of more than two per cent as seen in the first three quarters of 2002-03.

It was expected to record a fall of 4.4 per cent in the FY-03.

This would have an adverse impact on industrial sector with an estimated growth of 4.9 per cent, CMIE said.