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Home > Business > Stock Chat > Transcript
'Market may test 4200 level'
July 20, 2004
stocktalk : Sir, Vidiocon is launching 45 new items in consimer durable product line in short span on TV, White goods etc. Is it worth to pick up the stock? I bought Century Textile at 117. To what level it can reach in Janyary 2005.
Ramesh Damani : I have never been impressed by Videocon's business model.
ushti : sir i am a housewife closely follow yr views; holding lflex hind oil explon,chambal ferti,rel infra,nocil,solectron,rel capital,longterm and divinded yield in view;pl tell am i on right track or should i sell at any short term gains.thank u for yr views
Ramesh Damani : Thanks all for joining. Lets start. Your portfolio looks like a mixed bag. I would trim some of the holdings like Nocil etc.
Warren : Sir, What are the prospects of Moser Baer? The IT Hardware industry should do good. Their INDIA sales are also increasing.
Ramesh Damani : Somehow I am not convinced about its management potential. They need too much capital, and payout is small.
ddaga : Sir what do u think about Logix Micro
Ramesh Damani : Speculative share for poeple who like high bet shares. I own some. The company is doing well but still not out of the woods.
ytytytytytyty : It is a classy bet right now...I have Tata Infotech
Ramesh Damani : I think they will have a good year, I own it.
ataenoor : sir, an anlyst in valuenotes written in his column in valuenotes.com that sensex can slide to 2000 level in 12 months what do u say?
Ramesh Damani : I seriously doubt it. Even if we have a global terroist catastrophe.
srreedhar : sir, what about HINUSTAN LEVER FOR LONG TERMINVESTMENT
Ramesh Damani : For a 3-5 year view.. yes.
srreedhar : SIR WHAT ABOUT BIOCON FOR LONG TERM 1-2 YEARS
Ramesh Damani : Let's see the next year results. It is too early to tell in my opinion.
ddaga : WHAT ABOUT INVESTING PRESENT IN SUNDARM FINANCE AND TATA ELXSI
Ramesh Damani : Wait till you see Tata Elxsi results. Sundaram Finance looks good at the current time. I own both.
RRD : Dear Damaniji,Kindly advise on your old recommendation Shree Raj Syntex, it is moving and whether it shall cross Rs.25 in 6-12 months.
Ramesh Damani : I have booked some profits. I still own Shri Raj.
rakshesh : hi damaniji, financebill is not clear on taxation for derivatives. Is it true that from April2005, derivatives will be taxable ob par with short term capital gains?
Ramesh Damani : I doubt it, they will be treated as business income.
avinashi : Damani Shab, I am holding huge volume (1200) of Sundaram Finance. I am thinking of little diversion into PSU. What about your suggestion on Sudaram's Growth.
Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to Sundaram Finance. It is doing well and they have got a Rs 10 cr BPO order. I am not hot on PSUs.
rakshesh : damaniji-- should one buy TCS with intension of short term profit soon after listing or hold on for 1-2 years?
Ramesh S Damani : It will be a glamour stock and should give appreciation on listing.
Kriparam : Hello Sir,I want to know your opinion about Oil PSU's like IOC,BPCL & HPCL at current valuations.
Ramesh S Damani : Be careful over the next few months as profits may slip due to high subsidy.
RRD : Dear Sir, Tata Elxi is for long term Investment?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
sanujkadavl : SirWhats ur view on indo-rama synthetics. market is bullish on Indian textile story. But indo-rama not in the branded segment like arvind or zodiac, but last year was wonderful year for indo-rama , they paid rs 4 on a eps of 14. even at current rate it is trading a p/e of 4.5, compared to arvinds 14. would you buy this stock as value buy in short term…
Ramesh S Damani : They are doing well but I don't follow the co closely.
anu : Damaniji when e-serve open offer will be announceced and what price are you expecting. Thanks for your reply
Ramesh S Damani : Maybe in a few weeks. No date is fixed yet. I think I would like to bid at a price of 900-950.
sanujkadavl : SirLiquor industry , (our emerging theme) which contributes a massive 25,000cr to various state govt as taxes and duties.. but the organised Indian liquor companies valued only 1000cr. But how mr.mallya transform these in to balance sheet………What I understand is, he is spending too much money to acquire major and reqional brands, also spending lot money for brand building. I think 1n 3-4 years he might control half 50% of Indian IMFL and BEER market ……..
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, and he could then sell the stake at a huge price. However so far he has not delivered for shareholders.
HiRDamani : WHY IS SUNDARAM FINANCE NOT MOVING UP. SINCE THIS IS ONE OF UR CORE HOLDINGS, THIS WUD BE HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO GO UP , SAY 5-6 TIMES, BUT THAT CANT HAPPEN OVERNITE.IT SHUD SHOW SOME EARLY SIGNS WHICH IT IS NOT SHOWING.THANKS IN ADVANCE
Ramesh S Damani : You can't predict when a stock goes up. You buy good stocks and leave going up or down to markets. It has held value in a bad market that is a big plus.
m] : Sir, Please give feed back .whether u got the chance to visit and meet the management of NELCO. How is the company doing.
Ramesh S Damani : They have not given an appointment yet.
sg : NTPC is also coming up with IPO? Your comments?
Ramesh S Damani : Dull response.
anuaga : Rameshji on your advise I have puchased Blustar info. The stock is not moving up. What is your rec.
Ramesh S Damani : I would book profits at this time.
HiRDamani : ANY PARTICULAR NEWS ON BALAJI TELEFILMS? IT IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A COMEBACK , CAN WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSER TO 100 MARK ONCE AGAIN IN NEAR FUTURE?THANKS IN ADVANCE
Ramesh S Damani : No news. Let's wait for Q1 results.
ahmedabadguys : Sir what is your prediction about market movement in case we have a not so good monsoon in some parts of India and with the revised T.O. Tax announcement by FM tommorow..
Ramesh S Damani : Bad monsoon would be bad news for the market except tech.
rakshesh : damaniji, you have been a fan of TISCO- can I buy it with 3 years view?
Ramesh S Damani : Difficult to take a 3-year view on Tisco or steel prices. Current year should be good.
m] : Sir, One of your recommended stock was OPTO CIRCUIT.They have declared excellent result .30% dividend and bonus1:10 and having growth of 50% in top line.Excellent Finding .Thanks for recommedation
Ramesh S Damani : The bonus was 3:10 I believe.
HiRDamani : WHEN U SAY, U TRADE IN SOME 'X' STOCK, DOES THAT MEAN U FIX SOME TARGET PRICE FOR THAT STOCK... AS FAR AS I UNDERSTAND, U DONT DO THAT....THEN WHEN U EXIT SUCH A STOCK... THIS QUESTION IS ONLY FOR THOSE STOCKS IN WHICH U TRADE AND IS NOT ONE OF UR CORE HOLDINGS.BASICALLY I WANT TO UNDERSTAND UR TRADING STRATEGY.THANKS IN ADVANCE
Ramesh S Damani : Trading stocks I buy and sell from time to time. I rarely go short. However, I rarely have fixed price target and just try to play the movement.
Amit 2 : BALAJI TELE : There is positive FII report on balaji. News flow have started coming in. Do u think after flat last year , it is getting ready for new take off. Any targets or u still beleive it will be more than 200 in 2 yrs time as suggested earlier
Ramesh S Damani : I would think so. Growth has been a problem but she is working on a new stream of progamming (MTV)and she has a rock solid balance sheet.
Lipika : Good eve, Ramesh. I am your fan. Please cast your light on why M&M is so volatile. Where is it expected to go within December?
Ramesh S Damani : No particular reason. May be just a lot of shares changing hands.
sanujkadavl : Sir All know you are very bullish on IT and ITES. And has paid handsomely to investors But most of pure ITES scrips are on high p/e or three digit . can you give some emerging small cap idea from ITES other than macmilan,e-serve, hinduja-tmt , …How do you evaluate teledata informatics quarterly results. Looks good and aiming 200cr topline in FY05.
Ramesh S Damani : Tele-data manamgement is not the most easy to understand. Look at Tata Elxsi they are doing R&D and BPO. Wait till Q1 results and then let's decide.
HiRDamani : WHAT SHOULD BE A GOOD EXIT PRICE FOR KSB PUMPS IN CURRENT SCENARIO?
Ramesh S Damani : I am holing on at the current time.
shanti : Ramesh you are a great beliver in indian liquor industry.What are the prospects for khoday?
Ramesh S Damani : At 15 risk reward is with you.They are starting a call centre business. However, the management wants to take the company private.
mattajay : ramesh,a lot of tech companies in the US have come up with the warning that there quartely results will not be much lower than what they earlier stated????how do u precieve the indian tech companies doing in lieu of above,as u stated recently that IT might be a good bet in present scenario????thanks
Ramesh S Damani : They actually benifit as more work is coming to India.
sanujkadavl : SirHave you gone through agrotech fy04 annual report. They are taking lots of initiatives to boost topline . looks very cheap on marketcap/sales. And growing sharply. Would you add agrotech foods as your longterm portfolio like mcdowell, Macmillan, sundaram like????????
Ramesh S Damani : I am looking at it, profits are poor. However maybe good in 3 years time. Did you know that Warren Buffett's son is in the board of ITC-agrotech?
diamond : is there any short-cut to making money in the stock market ?
Ramesh S Damani : Have you heard the joke.
How to make a million dollar in the stock market?
Start with 10 million!!
shanti : Ramesh congrats. Your convictions are strong. All your stocks aare great picks like tata honey well, geo,e-serve. Any one can you name who is going to br future infosys.
Ramesh S Damani : That would have been e-serve if it hadn't been bought out. McDowell could make us huge gains if the management wakes up.
paris hilton : jakers- the adventures of piggley winks, a 40 episode cartoon 3 d serial is currently playing on pbs prime time in the usa and is also slated to play in sweeden australia and canada , this has been done by crest communications, and acoording to mike young productions who own the serials they have raised the bar for 3d annimation.your comments
Ramesh S Damani : You are right. It is a speculative company but one to watch, animation is going to be big business.
HiRDamani : BUT ARBITRARILY EXITING SOME TRADING STOCKS .... DOES THAT REALLY MAKE SENSE? OR I DID NOT UNDERSTAND UR ANSWER PROPERLY.
Ramesh S Damani : I look for price weakness, I am not a good trader.
shanti : Have you met Great Mr Baffet. If not if you meet hom in future what will you ask him?
Ramesh S Damani : No. Just learn from him about investing.
Lipika : RAMESH, as the monsoon is delivering below expectation, shall the market tank more and more this year on a bearish trend? Please answer.
Ramesh S Damani : If bad monsson persists I think market may test 4200 to begin with.
avinashi : Sir, I am worried that some time back Times of India published different meaning for CMP i.e., Capital Market Punishment... please answer how and why?
Ramesh S Damani : Basically due to turnover tax.
suresh : dear sir, Is there any specific reason why most of Mid cap stocks going upward. most of ur favorite stocks like kale, crest, logix etc are going up any good reason
Ramesh S Damani : I think due to the tax angle. It will lead to a bubble.
suresh : Padmalaya telefilms are into animation and it is doing well and getting good percentage of profit from it too. ur call on it
Ramesh S Damani : I have started following it, let's see if I can form a view.
sunil : ramesh lot of midcaps has gone up and going by the theme next few months will be of mid cap only. U have been telling us for kale /logix/crest/nelco/goldiam etc. Any new addition in the list. Are these stocks can be picked up at present price. Which one u feel is the best among lot.
Ramesh S Damani : Godrej Ind AGM is next week. So I will update you later.
Amit 2 : U ahve only 5 core holdings : MCDOWELL / UB / SUNDARAM FIN. / MACMILLAN / SBI . Is Mcdowell having largest share in that
Ramesh S Damani : No e-serve, Bharat Electronics, Indian Hotel, Tata Elixsi, CMC, Infotech. I am getting tempted to sell BEL.
diamond : is it possible to trade the markets for a living ?
Ramesh S Damani : Possible but difficult.
anaam : Sir,In this sort of market is it not worth investing in Glaxo Smith Kline Consumer,Alfa Laval,Hind Lever(Banga & others have recently investred in it),Alsthom Power,Voltas & so many others????Any new ones in your mind?
Ramesh S Damani : Those are good stocks.
shanti : Rameshji weather you belive it or not there is a huge follower are there for you especially in middle class, those who know less about stock market. What we can do in turn for you and rediff?
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks I enjoy being of help. It involves money so please do your own due diligience also.
avinashi : Please answer,,, is market in up mood or down? I have to offload Sundaram Finance at CMP? Please answer. It is unfair if you don't answer
Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on to Sundaram Finance. Rest is up to you.
guruwah : sir it has been past that you have given a new mulitibagger share what is happing to you yout third eye??? give us some new conpect with your great conviction i am waiting for your reply. if have pls tell thanks
Ramesh S Damani : Great ideas come rarely. I will certinaly share them as and when I feel I have them. Look at Elxsi after the results.
rakshesh : damaniji, do you expect short term cap. gain tax to be hiked to 15% if TOT is reduced?
Ramesh S Damani : Could happen.
BASANTMAHESHWARI : Have you been able to analyse NDTV CO. reported annualized EPS of RS 5. This quarter EPS had athe election and budget kicker though!
Ramesh S Damani : It looks like a one off quarter.
Amit 2 : Sundaram Fin : Has got 10 cr. order. Is this significant order for it. Do u see liquidity improving in this counter and Macmillan. Any price target for both these shares in mind
Ramesh S Damani : Yes it is. Both should have good years.
AnandBBhatt : SIR,I THINK I HEARD ON CNBC THE OTHER DAY THAT A POOR MONSOON WILL BE POSITIVE FOR KSB PUMPS?IS IT TRUE?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, because you need to drill for water. Also spend in agriculture is generally going up.
vvinay : sir,your ideas/calls are benefitial for traders as well thanks due to u I made good money in nelco/tata elexi/ksb/vst/crest give it a serious try you could be equally good as trader
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks. I will think about it. But long-term investing is more fun and less stressful. I have to run early today. Thanks for joining. I will see you all next week. Bye.
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