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Home > Business > Stock Chat > Transcript
'Market is close to a short-term bottom'
January 11, 2005
vamseekrishna : sir,today sensex closed (-85)below 6250 level, so where we can expect it togo in short term.
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. Market has made an intermediate top but I think we are close to the trading lows. Market should rebound in the next few days.
neeraj : Dear Mr. DamaniWhat is your opinion on pharma stocks especially Nicholas,Glenmark [Get Quote],glaxo
Ramesh S Damani : I am selling some Glenmark. I like Glaxo. Hold on Nicholas.
JM : Hi Rameshbhai, In your previous chat, you have mentioned about China becoming exporter of steel again after a long period. How genuine is this news and is there a way to verify it?
Ramesh S Damani : Search the Asian Wall St Journal, they had an article on it.
Tintin : I hold a portfolio comprising TCS [Get Quote],Wipro [Get Quote],NTPC,Reliance [Get Quote] Ind,UB Holdings and Tata Teleserv.....your 2 cents on this :)
Ramesh S Damani : It seems good to me.
chandani : sir DO U SEE GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY STOCKS?? if yes which r your favOURITES now??AT THIS LEVEL NUCLEUS 165 BHEL 226?/
Ramesh S Damani : BHEL is not 266 closer to 640. I like Nucleus and recently I am looking at Aegis Logistics [Get Quote].(60)
JesseLivermore : We should pay more attention to Jim Rogers, Sir. He's right more often than wrong. This last week included !
Ramesh S Damani : I agree.
stockcrazy : damaniji I am asking the obvious .. how low the market can go?
Ramesh S Damani : It's close to a short-term bottom.
milind : Good evening sir, a couple of weeks back I have reffered to you about a company named Fast Capital Growth (FCGL) having sold some lakh shares of Guj NRE coke yet having 37 Lakh shares of the same. Any views sir on the counter?
Ramesh S Damani : Unfortunately no.
yahoo : rameshbhai, i know u fancy pentamedia..any specific reasons why??
Ramesh S Damani : I don't fancy it.
JesseLivermore : Micheal Steinhardt in John Train's Money Masters talks of program trigger selling by Index funds. While in India we don't have a Vanguard sized fund, still have you ever spotted such a thing? Was there more to last week than just Hedge funds running with their speculative money?
Ramesh S Damani : It is diffcult to come to a conclusion. However market fell from its own valuation.
nanpal : Damani Sir, I am very confused in this market, ie., whether to book profits and enter again at lower lowels or to hold on to the stocks thru out the BULL RUN.
Ramesh S Damani : I like to hold through the bull market.
JOEGRANVILLE456 : ramesh, have u read the COMMING COLLAPSE OF DOLLAR AND HOW TO PROFIT FROM IT????
Ramesh S Damani : Who is the author?
vikas : Looks like good correction going on. Which has thrown the best opportunity to grab NUCLEUS / TATA ELXSI [Get Quote] / MCDOWELL / UB H / GODREJ IND
Ramesh S Damani : I own all these. However I would caution you against bottom fishing per se. Wait till Q3 results are out.
MALIK : The logistics sector is getting rerated and all analyst are bullish on that . which are companies u are bullish onlogistics apart from BL
Ramesh S Damani : Gati is another example.
deepakr : Should we buy Petronet LNG [Get Quote] at these levels?
Ramesh S Damani : I would recommend an initial exposure.
william : Hi Mr Damani, reference press note 18 restructing and GPI and VST, what stops BAT and PM from setting up their own subsidaries and setting up their own marketing initiative instead of getting into a bidding war with ITC and the Modi's. They have the big bucks and we have seen what PM has done in Eastern europe and South America. Your views
Ramesh S Damani : It would take huge time and marketing effort. This is a quick and painless way. Also Indian management will now quickly come to a deal.
PractiCAL : I hope as an EARLYBird i catch u today....HCL [Get Quote] Tech..is currently on the weaker side...IS it a good pick with a years Timeline. ?
Ramesh S Damani : Somehow I don't have too much convcition in the script.
Dharmesh B : Taking further, gas would be in demand, fortune magazine mentioned that US market is also looking in renewable energy (solar energy and wind power. It is considered to be slowly growing. All developed countries are into that (germany and spain). Whats ur opinion on renewable energy?
Ramesh S Damani : No co's to play it.
Sharad Bhatt : Sir, I would like to have your opinion about 2 comapnies.. 1 is bajaj Electricals & other is Bajaj Tempo ( I feel this is a very good time to buy these two stocks)...your views???
Ramesh S Damani : The first one (B ELE) is getting good analyst coverage. I don't follow the other.
TIKU : sir, for balmer lawriwe every body think of tour & travel business, but besides this it is also engaged in industrial packaging, gresces & lab., leather chemicals, cargo handling, turnkey project, container freight station, it services. also always made cash profit since inception in 1867. but still its value is very cheap as compared to other company. is management is not good or since it is psu no one is taking seriously. by logic it price should be atleat 500. what u think am i correct or not. please reply. thanks&
Ramesh S Damani : I don't know about the price target. It is a cheap stock and I am happy to hold it. Your analysis is correct.
vikas : Tata Elxsi : has been recommended as great long term play with animation as main growth driver. Dont u see this as multibagger along with crest in next 2 yrs.ANIMATION IS HUGE STORY WAITING TO BE UNFOLDED
Ramesh S Damani : I do. However it tends to be volatile quarter-on-quarter.
NAND : WHAT IS YOUR IDEA ABOUT INFOSYS [Get Quote] RESULTS, WHICH IS GOING TO BE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW, iI THINK A LOT IS DEPENDABLE ON ITS PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE GUIDEANCE.
Ramesh S Damani : I have no particular idea but they are having a good quarter. Expect a solid performance.
william : Will ITC be willing to give BAT a toehold via VST. They will be worried about BAT trying to buy out their cigarette business. At the same time with the way ITC is diversifying who knows they may demerge cigarettes and sell out for a sizeable chunk e
Ramesh S Damani : Bat is currently running VST.
kcs : sir can we still buy surya roshni at these levels . are the charts looking ok to you . pleaseeeeeeeeeesir can we still buy surya roshni at these levels . are the charts looking ok to you . pleaseeeeeeeeee
Ramesh S Damani : They look okay to me. I would buy it at current levels.
chandani : does glaxo hve good future??there was one 'renewable energy' and we have NEPC INDIA [Get Quote] in wind power enrgy.. your opinion..
Ramesh S Damani : Poor management in NEPC. They have not delivered.
ANAND : WHY THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IS UNDERPERFORMING ISPITE OF $ GAINING IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO, WHY WIPRO IS NOT PUTTING UP WEIGHT INSPITE OF AGREEMENT ENTERED WITH YES BANK [Get Quote] AND ITS BPO ACTIVITIES AND EXPANDING ITS BUSINESS
Ramesh S Damani : Don't look at these things week-to-week.
baracuda : if the jet ipo is going to be sold at 850 and royal airlines has already been jacked up to 40 without even having an aircraft then mallya should be sleeping very well these days
Ramesh S Damani : I would tend to agree with you.
pawan : sir markets are down nearly 8 % from 6700 to 6222. howmuch more downside do you see. where do you see sensex in january 2005. 6000 or 6500 ?
Ramesh S Damani : We are in a range. My sense is we are close to a short term bottom. Market should rally as early as tomorrow.
sanujkadavil : SirPlease your views on ION EXCHANGE. The 225cr professionally managed water management and Solution Company trading a mkt/cap of only 55cr. and it has good dividend track record. Also they are in the booming water treatment market, also has exposures in organic farming products
Ramesh S Damani : It is a good bet. However management has not delivered somehow.
william : Okay if BAT is running VST as and when they buy out ITC's stake do u think they would buy out everyone and make the company private. Why would they share the profits of a frowing market with the local investors. Same for PM and GPI
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks to reverese book building that is not easy anymore.
kcs : sir how is kale looking to you at this point of time .
Ramesh S Damani : Good investment, low risk, high return.
SURESHMAKHIJA : SIR JI WHAT R U R VIEWS ON MOUNT SHIVALIK ITS HAVING THECOLLABARTION WITH COBRA BEER AND ITS IS THE LARGEST BREWERI IN INDIA
Ramesh S Damani : I am taking a look at it. If I decide I wil let the board know.
sanujkadavil : SirIn Sundaram finance [Get Quote] and Godrej industries [Get Quote] , huge wealth creation is not possible, unless they de-merge their BPO , INSURANCE, etc businesses. Do you think it would happen in next two years. I think in next two years BPO biz would mature , then they could look for value unlocking.
Ramesh S Damani : My sense is that they would remain part of the group.
ahmedabadguys : Sir what is your view on Shaw wallace [Get Quote] stock?? Guide the board as your views can be very rewarding in light of its eminent takeover.....
Ramesh S Damani : Management is not known to help shareholders. I own some, but be careful. they have never delivered.
SURESHMAKHIJA : SIR IASKED U AT THIS TIME WHICH SECTOR IS LEFT FOR RERATING OR WHICH SECTOR U THINK IS MOST PROMISING PRESENTLY DONT U THINK THAT OIL SECTOR HAVENT PARTICIPATE IN THIS BULL RUN PLZZ COMMENT
Ramesh S Damani : I would look at media. If FDI comes in it would have a huge re-rating. Balaji seems mis-priced to me.
sgrrgs : I own 300+ Balmer Lawrie @Rs150per scrip.Should I add oor hold or sell?Pls reply
Ramesh S Damani : That is for you to decide.
sanujkadavil : SirENCORE software moving with huge volumes. Stock consistently trade with delivery percentage of 80%.ie some serious investors is buying the stock. Do you think their new product SATHI is going to success in market? Do you think the company has the potential to become a good product company in the long term ???
Ramesh S Damani : I do think so. The marketcap risk reward is in our favour.
ahmedabadguys : Mr. Damani A Technical analyst from India's largest brokerage house puts Surya Roshni [Get Quote] a multibagger with target of more than 150 rs. in next one year...Achievable???????
Ramesh S Damani : That would surprise me. No shock me. A pleasant surprise though.
nishant : Hello, Mr. Damani. Whats your view on Bombay Dyeing [Get Quote]? They have started developing their real estate in Dadar. Considering the boom in the real estate mkt., the company is expecting a profit of around 1000 crs. in couple of yrs. time on an equity base of 36 crs. Apart from that on the textile business side, the company is expected to benefit from low cotton prices as it is one of the key raw materials (around 60 % of the total cost). Do you think its a value buy at these levels?
Ramesh S Damani : Your analysis makes sense.
TIKU : sir, d-link india, fundamentally strong & good management company, butnot participated in bull run. recentally bags huge order from bsnl for broadband modem. will its impact to its share price and what is the future prospect of this company. please reply. thanks
Ramesh S Damani : I think it will. Hardware is a good demand driver in India.
baracuda : did yu read that aegis logistic is the first indian co who has received permission to start an lpg bottling and filling plant is this news correct
Ramesh S Damani : They are doing interesting things and gas is going to be a good business.
pawan : SIR ALL THE SMALL PRICE SHARES LIKE PENTA SOFT, PENTA MEDIA ETC HAVE NEARLY DOUBLED IN A MONTH. WHATS YOUR VIEW ON THESE COMPOANIES SIR ?
Ramesh S Damani : Avoid them.
SURESHMAKHIJA : SIR WHAT DO U THINK ABOUT SURYA ROSHNI IS IT GOING TO BE A MULTI BAGGER PLZZ REPLY WHATS U R APRROX TARGER I KNOW THAT U DONT TALK ABT PRICES THANX
Ramesh S Damani : It's good value if they do well over the next few years.100 cr mkt cap. Turnover of 1000 crore. High debt is a negative.
nlaxmann : Sir, I have been following your chat religiously for 2 years and I look fwd every tues to the 'damani motivation'. I wd like to have your opinion on which is abetter investment from a one yr perspective � Biocon [Get Quote] OR Jupiter Biosciences. Jupiter Biosciences Ltd recorded the highest profit margins in FY04 with its OPM of 42.2 per cent as compared to 32.60 per cent of Biocon and 32.70 per cent of Matrix Laboratories [Get Quote]
Ramesh S Damani : I don't know enough about these company to comment.
pawan : SIR I HACE READ ONE UP ON WALL STREET AS RECOMENDED BY YOU. IT IS A GREAT BOOK. THANKS FOR IT SIR. SIR WHICH NEXT BOOK SHOULD I READ ?
Ramesh S Damani : Try Market Wizards I
Alok : Sir Sensex has slipped to 6222, what are your view on Himachal Futuristic, Ispat Industries [Get Quote] Tata Tele and Prism Cements? PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE answerIndustries Tata Tele and Prism Cements? PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE answer.
Ramesh S Damani : Avoid the first 2. I like TT. Prism woule move with cement comapnay.
JesseLivermore : Bilcare is not an affordable stock at current prices. But the owner/founder is an incredible person. Wants to be the biggest player in the world. And he's setting up 3 overseas plants this year. Have you looked at it?
Ramesh S Damani : I own some. However, he has diluted his quity 3 times in the last year that does not make me too happy.
vikas : BALAJI : I agree with you , do u rate SANDESH as second best choiuce available at just 8 PE
Ramesh S Damani : It is cheap. I am trying to research it.
pawan : SIR PLEASE GIVE THE NAME OF AUTHOR FOR MARKET WIZARD PLEASE SIR ?
Ramesh S Damani : I forget the name. Look in Amazon. He has written 2 books.
maheshu : Sir, Any idea about venkys? Do you still hold this script?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, looks good.
pawan : THANK YOU VERY MUCH SIR FOR YOUR REPLY. CAN YOU PLEASE SUGGEST FOR THE COURSE IN CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY ? FOR STOICK MARKETS ?
Ramesh S Damani : I am not sure what they offer. I think Jim Rogers teaches in Columbia.
PractiCAL : SON..On your ADVICE i picked up Balaji Tele @ 59. Thanks to you it went up and am still holding it. No with a part of my retirement funds i want to make buy more of this. Do you see any more steam left in it. ?
Ramesh S Damani : Since you are close to retirement be careful. I hope the 16/ div helped.
pawan : SIR WHATS THE BEST TIME TO ENTER STOCK MARKET ? HOW TO BE CONFIDENT IN INVESTING ?
Ramesh S Damani : Confidence comes from conviction, conviction comes from knowledg, eknowedge comes from reading. The best time to invest is when we have a good stock.
HelloDamani : HELLO SIR, I hope u remember me... I m in US right now , So missed a lot of ur previous chats... firstly thanks a ton for all the advise u had given .My question is regarding the price Mcdowell and UBH.... I saw in ur transcripts that u have asked us to do calculations ourservles but I am sure Sir that each one of us will do this calculation with different numbers... So we need ur stamp to put at rest all the doubts and speculations.So please give us some price at which YOU WILL BE SATISFIED FOR THE VALUATIONS OF MCDOWELL AND UBH...THANKS IN ADVANC
Ramesh S Damani : Sebi frowns on us giving such price forecasts. However as you can guess the value of these cos are substantially higher than the current prices.
stockscrazy : sir I have read THE TITAN as suggested by you. it was higly motivating.
Ramesh S Damani : Good. I love good books.
nishant : Your views on Bharat Bijlee [Get Quote] and Siemens. Bharat bijlee holds around 3 lacs shares of Siemens @ Rs. 70. The order book position for both the companies is strong. Siemens is expected to show good nos. in next 2 quarters on a consolidated basis. Do you think it is still a value buy at these levels?
Ramesh S Damani : I own Siemens. I missed Bharat Bijlee. they should do well.
pawan : SIR WHY THERE IS A SHARP CORRECTION IN THE MARKETS ? ARE FII RUNNING AWAY FROM INDIAN MARKETS BECAUSE NOW THEY ARE INVSTING IN CHINA & SINGAPORE ? DOES THIS INDICATE A FURTHER CRASH IN THE MARKETS ?
Ramesh S Damani : That is the way markets are...
mansri : Sir, is LOGIX MICROSYSTEMS [Get Quote] also into logistics? If so, what are its prospects going forward? Scrip is stagnant at 29-30 levels for long. Pl advise. Thanks!
Ramesh S Damani : No. Software.
snsdhar : NDTV is coming out with its business channel. What is your take on this now. How would you view this against TV 18 ??
Ramesh S Damani : Let the war begin.
susmita : goodevening sir , do you think hotel industry will do good in near future. I `m having TAJGVK .shoulkd i quit it & go for some other goodone.
Ramesh S Damani : I think TAJGVK will do well. Hotel industry is booming.
SURESHMAKHIJA : , SIR PENTA MEDIA HAS SO MANY GOOD BUSINESS LIKE THEY HAVE 3D ANIMATION FILMS SPLASH CHANEEL ENTERTAINMENT COMPLEX AND OTHER INTERNET RELATED WORK AND THEY R CONTINOULY RELEASING ANIMATION FILN AND ACCORDING TO WALT DISNEY CEO THE ANIMATION FILM HAVE GOOD ROYALTIES FOR VERY LONG PERIOD THEN WHY PENTA IS NOT CONSIDERED AS A GOOD COMPANY THANX
Ramesh S Damani : My friend we need to learn from history.
BLazing : Sir, Please advise. What should be a small investors strategy in the current market? My profits have reduced by 1/3!!!PLEASE ANSWER!!!
Ramesh S Damani : What did you buy??
kapil : good evening sir do you still hold surya roshini in your portfolio
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
anjana : good. a.noon sirI am having 200 United Brew @ 500what is ur suggetion?book loss or hold.
Ramesh S Damani : Tender in open offer at 575.
RajniKant : What about SAHARA airlines.. they seem to be serious about their airways. and they have already made Hyderabad their hub.. and going seems good..
Ramesh S Damani : But not listed.
SURESHMAKHIJA : OK SIR THANX FOR U VALUABLE COMMENT U R REALLY DOING GOOD WORK FORSMALL INVESTOR LIKE US AND SHOWING THEM A PATH WHAT I ALWAYS THINK THAT ONE DAY WHEN U STOP COMMING ONT THIS REDIFF CHAT THEN WHO WILL SHOW THE PATH SIR PLZZ NEVER STOP TO COME ON THIS CHAT PLZZ SIR THANX
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for your kind words. The market has many people who contribute with ideas and insight.
Mathew : Read your views on nucleus. It has hardly shown any topline growth over the last 3 yrs. highly competitive niche of banking software, with al sort of big players. pls elaborate.
Ramesh S Damani : Look at the balance sheet. It is rich with cash. New contacts (GMAC) management is in place. I think we should see good growth in the next few years. However wait till Q3 resutls and then buy.
vikas : You are known for your vision and we all are witness for that , i personally who is chatting for last 2 1/2 yrs. I understand that new wealth creator will be MEDIA and GAS and hence BALAJI and GAIL as your top pick. Any other top pick like NUCLEUS
Ramesh S Damani : Media and gas will show upmany opportunites. These are just 2 examples. Many stocks will shine.
pawan : SIR WHY DONT YOU START DAMANI MUTUAL FUNDS. HOPE IT WILL BE THE SAFEST PLACE FOR INVESTMENT IN ALL OVER THE WORLD.
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks. I enjoy what I am doing no point in getting into mutual funds.
Rajkumardaga : Ssir, Kindly respond and let me know whether Encore Software [Get Quote] is a good bet for 1-2 yeras
Ramesh S Damani : Yes. low risk, good return.
Michelle : I am holding Swaraj Engines [Get Quote] without any gain during last few bullish months. Du you have any vague idea about their current performance?
Ramesh S Damani : Stocks take time to move. You need to be patient.
ahmedabadguys : Mr. Damani do oyu own or know Rane Madras?? Is the worth buying as mngmt. restructure the company now???
Ramesh S Damani : No don't follow them.
damani : I CHALLENGE YOU CANT STAY HERE AFTER 5:00 PM
Ramesh S Damani : You win. That is right. Thanks. See you next week. Bye.
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