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Home > Business > Stock Chat > Transcript
'Take a look at the water sector'
March 22, 2005
kans : Down trend in the market for the past few days - what do you see on this ??
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone thanks for joining lets start. Market is going through a painful correction. (all corrections are painful, ofcouse.) My sense is the bull market remains intact.
kans : Now with Malliah taking over SWallace will he further move ahead in consoldating all his liquire companies under one banner ?
Ramesh S Damani : I think that will happend. And then a strategic investor will be invited.
kans : Do you find any sector today that can behave the way steel industry done in the market during the past 2 years ?
Ramesh S Damani : Nothing grabs me like that.
chandani : sir sir barring liquor stocks everything just tanked..whatr do we do??your views in NUCLEUS ,??
Ramesh S Damani : Bullish and I own Nucleus. You must learn patience.
stockcrazy : damaniji would you care to solve the equation?Mcdowell+Herbertsons+SWC+Triumph=United spirits [Get Quote]=??? (market cap)
Ramesh S Damani : That would take Einstien to solve but look at market caps of Jinro, San Miguel and Harbin.
Sharad : Congratulation to you SIR from our Heart fro your true vision about the Liquer companies and it's hidden value..Now what next..Can we increse our exposure in the sector specially in Mcdowell (my purchase price is around 40) ????
Ramesh S Damani : Congrats and good luck. Take a look at the water sector.
BenGraham : GAIL: With shooting oil prices, LNG looks like the future and GAIL is well placed. But with Govt. slashing distribution costs will it benefit GAIL's bottomline? Wouldn't Gujarat Gas be a better play?
Ramesh S Damani : It is unclear at this time. GAIL has a monopoly with pipes which gives it huge advantage.
Newbiesatstock : It's a great day for all the Shareholders of the Liqour stocks, we finally have one of India's companies in the top 3 in the world, your conviction has finally paid off and now its up to the company to deliver, value will be unlocked as we go ahead, however this is just the beginning. Hopefully Mr.Mallya will be more shareholder friendly from now on. The market now knows the stories of UB holdings and Mcdowell and will price the stock for us. Cheers to a better future.
Ramesh S Damani : I would drink to that.
maneeshk : Damaniji, Namashkar. Is their a margin of safety in encore software and sonata software? Both have dipped substantially over the last one month.
Ramesh S Damani : They are too speculative to enjoy margin of safety.
susmita : hello sir , may I have ur views on regency ceremics ltd , CMP is 29.50 , EPS is 11.73 , P/E Ratio is 2.51. this share seems to be under valued according to me , sir may i have ur opinion.
Ramesh S Damani : I don't follow it, sorry.
ahmedabadguys : Damaniji what is your advise for investor who hold shaw wallace shares. sell them or tender them in open offer? out of 100 shares tender according to your calculations how many should be accepted at 260 rs. in the open offer???
Ramesh S Damani : I have not done the math.
KRR : Good Afternoon Sir... Great to have you here on this particular day since the dream deal was struck just yesterday!! Just wanted to say thanks for the way you helped to learn the conviction.... i have been holding MCD and UBH for more than 18 months now.... and would have sold it in the absence of these chat room..... thanks again :-)
Ramesh S Damani : It has taught me a great deal also. Hopefully it will make us all better investors who think for themselves and don't look at quarterly numbers.
DamaniFan : Do you think there will be futher correction in SBI [Get Quote] as there is lot of protest against the merging of all branches under one roof?
Ramesh S Damani : I think a sharp correction will be a buying opportunity.
Newbiesatstock : Am trying to understand the logic for investing in Mount Everest, I've thought about it and this is what I came up with. It's a small company that has footing both in international and domestic market. The shareholding pattern is very interesting, and just like Mcdowell back in 2000, the market of bottled water is set to grow in India.The public however owns only 2% of stock. Your views
Ramesh S Damani : No. The logic is they own a water source which is one of the 6-12 of that kind in the world. That will extract huge value some day, one, needs to be very patient. The company is still declaring losses. But that is why you are getting it at this rate.
stockbuff : how is SCANDENT SOLUTIONS. they have taken over the software business of SSI
Ramesh S Damani : Keep an eye on it.
vavnathan : Mr.Ramesh, in the current market trend we can add quality stock like GAIL, Nucleus etc.
Ramesh S Damani : They look okay to me.
vikrantgoyal : hi sir what is your view of GAIL from 2-5 year perspective ? .. can it give 20% coumpounded return ?
Ramesh S Damani : It has a shot at doing it with some safety.
aysuh : SIr..What is ur opinion on United Brewoeires (not Holding) after open offer? Is it will be benefited any how by acuisitions..?
Ramesh S Damani : It will go in strength.
nandini : GOOD EVENING SIR, I AM A COLLEGE STUDENT BEGINNING TO INVEST IN SHARES. PLEASE TELL YOUR VIEW ON ONGC [Get Quote], SBI, RELIANCE ENERGY [Get Quote] AND RELIANCE INDUSTRIES [Get Quote]. THANKS
Ramesh S Damani : I don't necessarily comment on individual stocks. The best tip I can give you for a good career is read 3 hrs a day. It helps greatly.
kans : What do you find in water sector ? Do you anticipate some of the present day water packaging companies move in the large scale desalination / water distribution in any of our Metros ? - say Chennai to start ?
Ramesh S Damani : That will no doubt happen.
TINU : sir, do you think that tv today is a good bet, it is at bottom & once fdi will come it will jump. what do you think. thanks
Ramesh S Damani : I think it will.
Newbiesatstock : Sir is it wrong, if someone recommends a stock to you and one holds it�.a lot of people would have bought Mcdowell and Ub on your recommendations is it wrong if they shared the same conviction? I mean people did hold it for a long time but was their conviction in your conviction?
Ramesh S Damani : No one holds due to ones own conviction. Credit to them.
tabu : Last time you said about Mc Dowell that you will "hold but not buy until I know avout Shaw Wallace [Get Quote]" Now Shaw Wallace deal is finalised . Would you buy more Mc Dowell now? Can we continue to hold?
Ramesh S Damani : The risk increases as the price increases. I would hold. Buying now is for more aggressive investors.
sudhir : sir talking about water sector apart from mount everest any good stocks in the sector
Ramesh S Damani : Still working on them.
scrippy : Respected Sir. Todays writing Products is currently at 35 levels. It has run up twice to 65 region in 2004 and fallen and agen risen to 76 levels in late 2004. Do you think it can run up again?
Ramesh S Damani : Somehow I am not convinced about it.
SingaporeJB : Godrej [Get Quote] Indestries: it hold 12.81% of Godrej Cosumer (mcap 1641Cr*12.87%) worth around 211cr and 210% in sara lee it values 200cr. Does it look value buy at current CMP
Ramesh S Damani : I have been recommeding it in the low 40's.
sushmita : sir do u think the mkt is in correction stage? Its giving me attacks as almost all my shares have gone down from its purchased price.how long will it take to recover according to u?
Ramesh S Damani : I can't answer that, be patient and invest with conviction.
ChennaiDamani : Good Evening Sir, Thanks a lot for UB Holding earnings/Profits,My friend is saying it's still having lot of steam up to Rs 300+?
Ramesh S Damani : Market is still not factoring the value of Kingfisher Air in the company.
Newbiesatstock : Yes i saw the company numbers its been going through losses, the field itself is very promosing, so this could be a potential multibagger in 2-3 years to come ?
Ramesh S Damani : I hope so.
tabu : What type of consolidation value unlocking you expect in Mc Dowell after recent developments?
Ramesh S Damani : Once consolidated a foreign company would be invited to take a stake. It will be frenzied biding because other wise you are locked out from the market. That is my view. However it is 6 months away.
SA : SCANDENT : TOP MANAGEMENT including Ramesh Vangal , wonderful growth in 30 months highly recommended by one analyst , is it really good stock in the making.Have you looked at it or plan to look
Ramesh S Damani : Have not seen a balance sheet yet.
redalert : sir can we look at ondeo nalco and ion exchange in water sector. both are well placed to exploit the water processing plant and chemical market
Ramesh S Damani : Nalco may get delisted soon but you get the drift.
KRR : Sir... everytime i see you here, i feel like asking give me 3 stocks to invest considering the present market situation and i know you rarely answer such questions.... but since this is a different day, i feel like i might find a jackpot... I want this to share with frineds in whose eyes I am the hero since i was very vocal about Mallya stocks... pl do me a small favour... 3 stocks ... thanks :-)
Ramesh S Damani : Two small cap ideas are Mount Everst and Gati. Both for patient investors.
sanujkadavil : sir40% of worlds 2nd largest distiller available at 500cr.UB holdings hitting 9 upper circuits in last 11 sessiions. 40% in worlds 2nd largest distiller, again . kingfisher airlines 3-4 years become a jet airways, mr.wilcox and former jetblue team will take kingfisher in darling of dalal street. UB HOLDINGS IS GOING TO BE A DARLING OF DALA STREET IN COMING DAYS
Ramesh S Damani : Let's hope you are right Sanuj.
JainV : Good day MrDamani, HBL NIFE : sound fundamentals? Can we buy for long term.
Ramesh S Damani : Keep an eye on it.
baracuda : is jet blue a mallya owned cos in the usa have yu tried this locost airline
Ramesh S Damani : No they have hired the marketing guy.
ssreedhar : sir any good institute in india to learn derivative trading please give reply
Ramesh S Damani : Try Refco, they have classes or BSE training institute.
JainV : Good day Mr damani: HARRISON MALayalam - all those plantations is long term story? any vaue to unlock? the managt of course is RPG (shudder). your views.
Ramesh S Damani : That is why I ignored it. Though they are changing.
nandini : THANKS FOR REPLYING. SIR, YOU TOLD IN YOUR PREVIOUS CHAT ABOUT TV TODAY. IT IS FALLING BADLY RECENTLY. ANY REASONS?
Ramesh S Damani : It is. Waiting for FDI in broadcasting. Again, patience.
esabindia : i know u will not reply me but still again asking how is esab india
Ramesh S Damani : They are doing well.
SA : TV18 / TV TODAY / SANDESH : Are these wealth creator in times to come once FDI is allowed , will there be big explosion on announcement . Can we buy now
Ramesh S Damani : I don't know about explosion but they will do well.
mlnarayan : Hello Rameshji, you are bullish on Logistics then what is your views on Mascon Global [Get Quote] , Fedder LLoyd .
Ramesh S Damani : What is the connection to logistics, (ref vans).
ramank : Sir, How On what basics should identify when to enter/exit Cyclicals?
Ramesh S Damani : Sell at low PE and buy when they are making losses or high PE.
rajeshkumar : Mr Damani, do you see any growth potential in Trent
Ramesh S Damani : Certainly.
SA : MATRIX LAB : has fallen to 145 , isn't good pick at this point . Or u like any other pick in the sector , are sunny days over for these cos.
Ramesh S Damani : Earning may be volatile over the next few quarters.
ataenoor : sir I think u only reply a question which is related to media stock & breweries stock. In which i do not invest. Plz reply on Bata & Market as a whole.
Ramesh S Damani : I reply to question that 1) interest me 2) are of general interst 3) I have some knowledge about.
SingaporeJB : Sir your favourite stocks, GODFRYPHLP started moving, I think it is right timing to buy VST as it cheap and market start looking at tobaco stock. am I correct?
Ramesh S Damani : Logic is on track.
Newbiesatstock : Sir do you personally teach as well at the BSE institute
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
baracuda : do yu still rate balaji as the countires top content provider and that in 2-3yrs time they shall start delivering on their bottomline
Ramesh S Damani : They are already delivering on bottome line. How do you pay a 16/dividend other wise. Problem has been growth.
esabindia : damani, a five day average volume comparision to 30 day average volume does help?? or not
Ramesh S Damani : If you do technical analysis, maybe..
SachinS : Hello Sir, I have brought Balmar Lawrie @ 221 & D-Link @ 130, What is future aspect
Ramesh S Damani : They look okay to me.
sanujkadavil : sirGEOJIT MD C.J.GEORGE saying 20cr profit on 75 cr turnover in fy05, works 24-25EPS . and confident of 30% CAGR IN NEXT 5 YEARS, AVAILBLE STILL 7 P/E. i have send transcript of theinterview
Ramesh S Damani : It can be done.
Jairaj : Moneycontrol has printed by mistake that Jetblue is owned by UBH. They need to corect that
Ramesh S Damani : No Kingfisher Air is owned by a 100% subsidiary of UB Holding as per balance sheet.
SA : ANIMATION : Series of article on rediff , great prospects . ARE CREST and ELXSI potential multi bagger in 2 yrs. time. for last few months u are not looking very bullish on these stocks
Ramesh S Damani : They will do well so remian invested.
maneeshk : Sir, do you still recommend Bank of Punjab in the 'weak banks' category?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
pongo : Sir what is your view on the book "Seven Habits of Highly Effective People" by Stephen Covey
Ramesh S Damani : Good.
vikrant : sir .. what are the cources do u teach at the BSE indtitute ?
Ramesh S Damani : Investing with masters, basically (Lynch, Rogers, Buffett, Templeton and Bogle).
SingaporeJB : Sir, Your advice is always correct. Market does not care intelligent people. It care only patient investor who is acting on his own conviction?
Ramesh S Damani : Investing is not a game in which a guy with IQ of 160 beats a guy with IQ of 120. Common sense and patience are as important as IQ.
Sharad : Sir, I would like to know ..Do you plan to patricipate in the April 2nd Session at AHMEDABAD ?? As we want to finalize our participation based on ur visit??
Ramesh S Damani : I don't think I will be in Ahmedabad.
tango : Mr Damani could u pls confirm tth the stock tht ur ecommended last week is MOUNT EVE MINERAL WATER BSE code 531096. Do u ahve any particular atrgets in mind..I dont mind being invested for 2-3 years..Is it a 5 bagger?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, that is the code. I dont know about bagger but it could be a good stock.
JesseLivermore : Any views on Indiabulls [Get Quote]? With 570 cr expanded equity post GDR, a 25% ROE (they've done better the last three years), yield a PAT of 140 odd crore or a PE of 7 for a 25% grower, with a NBFC subsidiary. As a discount broker + NBFC, its still a good value buy, especially coz the CEO & team is the best in the business.? Any views?
Ramesh S Damani : I am not comfortable with Indiabulls valuation.
gargr : Do u still hold Aegis logistics [Get Quote] apart from Gati & BalmerLawrie
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
esabindia : i know when 2 buy but can u give some tips on what factors to consider on selling ..that is difficult
Ramesh S Damani : Does the market cap makes sense in the bull market? Can't explain in a chat show. Read some books, you will get the idea. It will be more fun.
sanujkadavil : siri heard matterhorn venures holds 9% in mount everest,marc faber company.
Ramesh S Damani : It is Vinod Sethi's.
ramanr : Sir, Same Q again on Cyclical, Since most of it( Steel, Shipping, chemicals) are already quoting at 3 to 5 PE's. Does it give indication that the bullish tread of these going to end soon?
Ramesh S Damani : It would be an indication.
TINU : sir do you follow Datametics tech a mumbai based bpo company with good fundamentals. what is your take on it. thanks
Ramesh S Damani : They are struggling with client losses, let's see a few quarter of results.
Jairaj : How is Khodays shaping up in its liquor and IT enabled business. Is there a lot of value left there for a long term investor? Maybe we could look at it in the hammering the market is getting. Thanks
Ramesh S Damani : They are poor with disclosures so no new knowledge.
maneeshk : Sir, hoping to get your reply on Bank of Punjab. You would still recommend it ?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.
pogo : Sir could you suggest a very good book on Warren Buffet which is simple in language and lucid in nature
Ramesh S Damani : Of permanent value by Andrew Kilpatrick.
tango : Mr Damani. While surfing the net came across a lovely article at capitalideasonline. U had chaired a discussion with many great financial peronalities. Did u ever have another round table conference after tht? There were people like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala,Raamdeo Agarwal,Bharat Shah,Sanjoy Bhattacharya,R Sukumar ,Sanjiv Duggal. Thks
Ramesh S Damani : I do it from time to time.
asdfgh : The P/E should be low or high for buying a stock. Your previous comment regardinf confused me
Ramesh S Damani : That is for cyclical companies.
Ganesh : I read that analysts predicted market won't fall below 6600 sensex, but today it toughed 6525..So Can we expect more correction?Ganesh says, I read that analysts predicted market won't fall below 6600 sensex, but today it toughed 6525..So Can we expect more correction?
Ramesh S Damani : I am not good at predicting Sensex moves.
smakhija : sir what r u r views about future and options i lost heavily in recent march fall out plzz suggest
Ramesh S Damani : Don't do it (futures).
kumar : Hello sir I bought Arvind products @17 and Shree raj Texchem@10 , what should i di, shall I shift to other counters or can hold for long term, need your valuble advice sir.
Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on.
sanujkadavil : sircheers on SWC-McDOWELL DEAL...indian investors mind ramesh damani sitting ahead of warren buffet.. what you are expecting after the acquisition. mallya hinted on NDTV last night , they are going to merge HERBERTSONS-TDV-SWC with MCDOWELL. a huge liquor giant borns with 60million cases sales and 2nd in world, CFO RAVI NEDUGADI ALSO HINTING UNLOCKING VALUE AFTER THE DEAL , how do you looking all the changing scenarios.UB Holdings real Multibagger ,,sitting with 2nd biggest distiller in world , and an airline with other valuable assets also,,WILCOX in interview with REUTERS says alredy talks going on with RICHARD BRANSON on stake sale, and expecting operating profit in first year of operation, the whole former JETBLUE team is behind with MALLYA.something to cheers for UB group shareholders.BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY ALL THE CREDIT GOES TO ONE AND ONLY GREAT RAMESH DAMANI.........A MILLION THANKS TO YOU SIR.........RAMESH DAMANI KE jai ,jai ,jai,jai,jai........
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks again, but let us not rest on old glory but find new ideas. Thanks again.
smakhija : ok i will not do it but sir when u need money to invest in `long term stock u need some quick bucks thats why i got attracted therein futures
Ramesh S Damani : Money making should be so simple!
maneeshk : sir, in your last session you did brush upon abee info consumbables. agreed that 100 crores by 2010 is a tall order. but fundamenatlly, a compatible ink cartridge ( quality is assured) is a very cheap alternative to the cartridges the HPs, Canons , EPsons etc sell in India. the price differential is huge. but the key success factor would be the level of penetration and the communication about the product benefit which would be the uphill task? Do you agree. with this is abee an investment option?
Ramesh S Damani : I am still not conviced it is that easy.
SA : VST : CAN WE BUY HEAVILY , IS IT REALLY CHEAP TO THE PEERS
Ramesh S Damani : That is for you to decide, be patient and invest for convcition.
shraddhatilloo : Mr. Damani, I asked you two questions, but I dont know whether they reached you or not, this is my last quesion to you. Which among GACL & ACC is the right buy after the HOLCIM deal? I want to know the logic of selection in sucha situation. Second qeustion is what is the stock code for UBHolding? I'm not able to find it on icicidirect.com site? Hope this time you would receive my questions & would answer them.
Ramesh S Damani : UB Holdings code is 507458, sometime no clear answer exists.
KRR : WHO SAID MONEY MAKING IS NOT SIMPLE?? MY MONEY HAS TURNED ALLMOST 10 TIMES IN LAST 18-20 MONTHS... (P.S.: I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING YOU BLINDLY)... WHAT SHOULD I SAY?? THANKS :-)
Ramesh S Damani : I doubt that is true. Also remember you will go through bad periods. The key remains taking a measured view of markets and not getting too swayed away.
rajeshkumar : Mr. Damani, with the exponential rise in crude oil prices,what is your recommendation for the oil marketing companies (especially BPCL [Get Quote])stocks? Should we sell it or keep a hold?
Ramesh S Damani : They look to be in trouble. Thanks all for joining, see you next week. Bye.
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