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May 18, 2000

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Getting ready for retirement

Earlier: Getting started

Rohit Sarin

In the previous piece we saw that identifying goals is a first step in financial planning. Taking that as a lead, we have taken case studies of three individuals of varying ages: 25, 30 and 35.
One common criteria being their goals:

  • House purchase at the age of 40
  • Finance of child's education at 45
  • Finance their child's marriage at 55 years
  • Retirement at 55 years
With the assumption that all of them share a balanced risk profile, here is how they should plan for their retirement.

CASE I

Assumptions in the case of the 25 year-old....................

  • Current Monthly Expenses: Rs 10, 000
  • Monthly contribution to PF: Rs 1,500
  • Annual estimated increment: 10 per cent
  • Annual return on PF: 11 per cent
  • Annual return on debt funds: 12 per cent
  • Annual return on equity funds: 20 per cent
  • Annual rate of inflation: 8 per cent
Which lead to....................................
  • A recommended debt to equity ratio of 40:60. For this, a mix of debt and equity based funds should be selected.
  • Estimated current value of monthly expenses of Rs 10, 000 would inflate to Rs 100, 627 on retirement after 30 years.
  • To generate such an amount of regular income Rs 12,075,188 would need to be invested in financial instruments giving a steady annual return of 10 per cent.
  • A major chunk (86 per cent) of this would be financed through accumulated PF balance which would have grown to Rs 1, 03, 71, 655.
  • Therefore, the balance amount of Rs 17, 03, 534 would need to be saved over a period of 30 years.
  • With a debt to equity mix of 40:60,, the person needs to begin with a total monthly of only Rs 143. This monthly saving/contribution would could keep on increasing every year.
In figures, the complete 30-year plan translates to..............

Year
Year No. Equity Fund (Rs) Debt Fund (Rs) Total Yearly Income Cumm. Balance**
2000 1 86 57 143 1,713 133 1,846
2001 2 94 63 157 1,884 417 4,147
2002 3 104 69 173 2,073 768 6,988
2003 4 114 76 190 2,280 1,200 10,468
2004 5 125 84 209 2,508 1,727 14,703
2005 6 138 92 230 2,759 2,367 19,829
2006 7 152 101 253 3,035 3,139 26,002
2007 8 167 111 278 3,336 4,066 33,404
2008 9 184 122 306 3,672 5,175 42,251
2009 10 202 135 337 4,044 6,500 52,795
2010 11 222 148 370 4,440 8,074 65,308
2011 12 244 163 407 4,884 9,940 80,133
2012 13 269 179 448 5,376 12,149 97,658
2013 14 296 197 493 5,916 14,756 118,330
2014 15 325 217 542 6,504 17,829 142,663
2015 16 358 238 596 7,152 21,441 171,256
2016 17 394 262 656 7,872 25,683 204,811
2017 18 433 289 722 8,664 30,657 244,132
2018 19 476 318 794 9,528 36,481 290,140
2019 20 524 349 873 10,476 43,290 343,906
2020 21 576 384 960 11,520 51,242 406,669
2021 22 634 422 1,056 12,672 60,520 479,861
2022 23 697 465 1,162 13,944 71,334 565,139
2023 24 767 511 1,278 15,336 83,927 664,402
2024 25 844 562 1,406 16,872 98,579 779,853
2025 26 928 619 1,547 18,564 115,612 914,029
2026 27 1,021 680 1,701 20,412 135,399 1,069,839
2027 28 1,123 748 1,871 22,452 158,368 1,250,659
2028 29 1,235 824 2,059 24,708 185,015 1,460,382
2029 30 1,358 906 2,264 27,168 215,909 1,703,460

CASE II

Assumptions in the case of the 30 year-old....................

  • Current Monthly Expenses: Rs 20, 000
  • Monthly contribution to PF: Rs 2,000
  • Annual estimated increment: 10 per cent
  • Annual return on PF: 11 per cent
  • Existing PF balance: Rs 100,000
  • Annual return on debt funds: 12 per cent
  • Annual return on equity funds: 20 per cent
  • Annual rate of inflation: 8 per cent
Which lead to....................................
  • Recommended debt to equity ratio of 50:50. For this, a mix of debt and equity based funds should be selected.
  • Estimated current value of monthly expenses of Rs 20, 000 would inflate to Rs 136, 970 per month on retirement after 25 years.
  • To generate such an amount of regular income Rs 1, 64, 36, 340 would need to be invested in financial instruments giving a steady annual return of 10 per cent.
  • About 50 per cent of this would be financed through accumulated PF balance which would have grown to Rs 76, 73, 755.
  • Therefore, the balance amount of Rs 87, 62, 586/- would need to be saved over a period of 25 years.
  • With a debt to equity mix of 50:50, the person needs to begin with a total monthly of Rs 1,740. This monthly saving/contribution could keep increasing every year.
In figures, the complete 25-year plan translates to...................

 

Year No. Equity Fund Debt Fund Total Yearly Income Cumm. Balance**
2000 1 870 870 1,740 20,878 1,552 22,429
2001 2 957 957 1,914 22,965 4,847 50,241
2002 3 1,053 1,053 2,105 25,262 8,911 84,414
2003 4 1,158 1,158 2,316 27,788 13,883 126,085
2004 5 1,274 1,274 2,547 30,567 19,923 176,575
2005 6 1,401 1,401 2,802 33,623 27,219 237,418
2006 7 1,541 1,541 3,082 36,986 35,987 310,391
2007 8 1,695 1,695 3,390 40,680 46,478 397,549
2008 9 1,865 1,865 3,729 44,748 58,982 501,279
2009 10 2,051 2,051 4,102 49,224 73,837 624,340
2010 11 2,257 2,257 4,513 54,156 91,432 769,929
2011 12 2,482 2,482 4,964 59,568 112,217 941,713
2012 13 2,730 2,730 5,460 65,520 136,709 1,143,943
2013 14 3,003 3,003 6,006 72,072 165,508 1,381,523
2014 15 3,304 3,304 6,607 79,284 199,305 1,660,112
2015 16 3,634 3,634 7,268 87,216 238,897 1,986,225
2016 17 3,997 3,997 7,994 95,928 285,200 2,367,353
2017 18 4,397 4,397 8,794 105,528 339,272 2,812,153
2018 19 4,837 4,837 9,673 116,076 402,328 3,330,557
2019 20 5,320 5,320 10,640 127,680 475,767 3,934,004
2020 21 5,852 5,852 11,704 140,448 561,198 4,635,650
2021 22 6,438 6,438 12,875 154,500 660,473 5,450,622
2022 23 7,081 7,081 14,162 169,944 775,717 6,396,283
2023 24 7,790 7,790 15,579 186,948 909,373 7,492,604
2024 25 8,568 8,568 17,136 205,632 1,064,246 8,762,482

CASE III

Assumptions in the case of the 35 year-old....................

  • Current Monthly Expenses: Rs 30,000
  • Monthly contribution to PF: Rs 2,500
  • Annual estimated increment: 10 per cent
  • Annual return on PF: 11 per cent
  • Existing PF balance: Rs 300,000
  • Annual return on debt funds: 12 per cent
  • Annual return on equity funds: 20 per cent
  • Annual rate of inflation: 8 per cent
Which lead to....................................
  • Recommended debt to equity ratio of 50:50. For this, a mix of debt and equity based funds should be selected.
  • Estimated current value of monthly expenses of Rs 30, 000 would inflate to Rs 139,829 per month on retirement after 20 years.
  • To generate such an amount of regular income Rs 1, 67, 79, 446 would need to be invested in financial instruments giving a steady annual return of 10 per cent.
  • About a third of this would be financed through accumulated PF balance which would have grown to Rs 56, 37, 516.
  • Therefore, the balance amount of Rs 111,41, 930 would need to be saved over a period of 20 years.
  • With a debt to equity mix of 50:50, the person needs to begin with a total monthly of Rs 4,927. This monthly saving/contribution could keep increasing every year.
In figures, the complete 20-year plan translates to...................

 

Year No. Equity Fund Debt Fund Total Yearly Income Cumm. Balance**
2000 1 2,464 2,464 4,927 59,129 4,394 63,523
2001 2 2,710 2,710 5,420 65,042 13,727 142,292
2002 3 2,981 2,981 5,962 71,546 25,238 239,075
2003 4 3,279 3,279 6,558 78,701 39,319 357,095
2004 5 3,607 3,607 7,214 86,571 56,427 500,093
2005 6 3,968 3,968 7,936 95,228 77,090 672,410
2006 7 4,365 4,365 8,729 104,750 101,922 879,083
2007 8 4,801 4,801 9,602 115,224 131,635 1,125,941
2008 9 5,281 5,281 10,562 126,744 167,051 1,419,736
2009 10 5,810 5,810 11,619 139,428 209,125 1,768,289
2010 11 6,390 6,390 12,780 153,360 258,957 2,180,606
2011 12 7,029 7,029 14,058 168,696 317,822 2,667,124
2012 13 7,732 7,732 15,464 185,568 387,188 3,239,880
2013 14 8,506 8,506 17,011 204,132 468,753 3,912,765
2014 15 9,356 9,356 18,712 224,544 564,474 4,701,783
2015 16 10,292 10,292 20,583 246,996 676,605 5,625,384
2016 17 11,321 11,321 22,641 271,692 807,745 6,704,821
2017 18 12,453 12,453 24,905 298,860 960,885 7,964,566
2018 19 13,698 13,698 27,396 328,752 1,139,471 9,432,789
2019 20 15,068 15,068 30,136 361,632 1,347,465 11,141,886

 

Next: Saving for a home

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