Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

The only way India can get to Tiger growth rates is to sack the UF government, lock, stock and barrel

Let us begin with Manmohan Singh at the Nehru Memorial lecture: "Inflation is the worst possible tax and hurts the poor most. Probably the best social safety net we ought to work for is an effective control of inflation. Our objective should be to work towards an annual inflation rate of less than five per cent."

Chidambaram's Budget pitches inflation at nearer eight per cent. But there is little reason to believe that it will actually be contained there. So, I am afraid there is a long, hot summer ahead. Sengupta shows that with a monetised deficit (the printing of money) of Rs 320 billion in the UF government's first two years "the whole system" has been rendered "highly vulnerable... Inflation is bad not only because it destabilises the economy and worsens the condition of the poor more than others, but also because it tends to reduce the Plan expenditure and invariably, most of all, the social expenditure."

And this is precisely what the Chidambaram Budget has done: fueled inflation and cut Plan and social expenditure. Worse is in store if the UF government lasts long enough for Chidambaram to present a supplementary Budget.

Singh says: "If higher growth is to become a reality, it needs to be backed by a credible strategy." The inherent contradictions between the Approach to the Ninth Plan and the 1997-98 Budget do not tantamount to a 'credible strategy.' The basic reason for this is, to quote Singh again, "in the final analysis, the quality of a polity depends on its leadership." The UF leadership is at cross-purpose with itself. The finance minister and planning commission deputy chairman live in different worlds. The prime minister does not even begin to understand the contradictions, leave alone know how to resolve them.

The only way India can get to Tiger growth rates is to sack the UF government, lock, stock and barrel. That, alas, will happen only if the Left gives up its barren anti-Congressism. The future, in other words, lies in the hands of two octogenarians: Jyoti Basu and Sitaram Kesri.

One prays, for the sake of the country, that they prove equal to the task.

Tell us what you think of this column