Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

No prospect of the next election throwing up a clear BJP majority

In the north, neither Jammu and Kashmir nor Himachal nor New Delhi seems poised for much change. Haryana has always been volatile, but whether a year has been adequate for the usual electoral disillusionment with the ruling party to set in seems uncertain.

In Punjab, the Congress, driven from the divisive seat of power, might present a more united front this time. Will the new-found love between the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party extend to Punjab? And will the triumph in the assembly elections of two communal forces in unison persuade the Left (by which one means Harkishan Singh Surjeet) to join hands with the Congress in a common cause? It is on these two questions that the outcome in Punjab would hinge.

The key state in the north, as indeed in India as a whole, is Uttar Pradesh. The Congress there is in the happy position of having little to lose, having lost most already. But will Mulayam be wiped out by the new BSP-BSP combine? Yes, most certainly -- except in one of the two eventualities: an understanding with the Congress, and/or a breakdown of the fragile BJP-BSP alliance over seat-sharing in the coming elections. A Congress-Samajwadi Party-BSP alliance would sweep the polls, putting back the BJP by half-a-century.

In east India, the Congress is already dominant in Orissa; it can only grow more dominant with Biju Patnaik hors de combat.

In West Bengal, the Left Front is dominant. And too blind in its anti-Congressism to look beyond Writer's Building. Bar a seat here and a seat there, what Bengal thought yesterday is what Bengal is likely to think tomorrow. So, statusquo, at least broadly speaking, it would appear to be a safe prognostication.

But Bihar is up for grabs. Laloo Prasad Yadav is in the same pickle as Mulayam Singh Yadav. The BJP-Samata combine is bound to make substantial gains at his expense -- unless Laloo reads the writing on the wall and comes to some understanding with the Congress. If in UP, the Congress has little to lose, in Bihar it has even less to lose. I would watch Bihar, if I were you.

Finally, the North-East. Status quo everywhere, I would say, apart from Assam. In Assam, the Asom Gana Parishad has lost its ideological lean, gone back on its manifesto commitments, and shown itself to be uncertain and confused in governance. The Congress has also adjusted to Hiteswar Saikia's death. Some Congress gains are inevitable.

Against this background, I see no prospect of a general election throwing up a clear BJP majority. Now, bucking the conventional wisdom and begging the pardon of the chattering classes, do I see a general election reducing the Congress to nothingness?

It is only the Janata Dal that is in real danger of being wiped out. Who will get to form the central government would depend on what understandings are reached in the run-up to the elections. If the secular forces are able to rise above their inevitable bitterness and anger at Deve Gowda's going, a Congress-led coalition could take office after the elections and provide the country stable governance into the 21st century.

If, however, the anguish of the moment were to set the tone for the next election, the parties of the Opposition will have to get their act together, post-elections, to ensure that any saffron-led government is pulled down before the next millennium is upon us.

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