The Rediff Special/
The American Plan
Washington is keen to strengthen Indo-US ties. But is Gujral interested?
The American gaze is resting on India these days with positive
signals flowing fast and thick. Engagements is the buzz word,
'strategic dialogue' its vehicle and New Delhi can barely
keep up with the crush of high-level US visitors coming to make
it happen.
The second Clinton administration has made a public commitment
to try to engage India and remove the roller-coaster aspect of
the relationship which puts everything into reverse gear the moment
difference occur. There is recognition that the old US approach
of always 'telling' India what they should do has failed
and it is time to try a new tack. The superpower-in-a-hurry is
willing to give New Delhi some time to respond and make a go of
things.
The meeting between I K Gujral and Bill Clinton went well although
as an US official described it: ''The two are not about to
become bosom buddies." They can call each other on the phone
if need be and that is a start. But the big question remains:
will Gujral take time off from his rallying cries for the barely-breathing
non-aligned movement and his misplaced enthusiasm for anachronistic
alliances to invest some political energy into the Indo-US dialogue?
The realists in Washington are not so sure, given the PM's penchant
for sharp rhetoric and a surprising lack of tact on foreign policy
issues.
US officials watched with consternation the recent public
spat between India and Britain over Kashmir and wondered if New
Delhi and Gujral were 'over-reacting' a bit. So adept
are the Americans now on handling the Kashmir question that they
repeat the policy of non-interference like a 'mantra'.
''The general mood towards India is very positive,'' said
one state department official. If both play their cards right,
the India-US relationship could emulate the US-China dialogue
which has been difficult at times but never broken because of
the varied aspects of bilateral ties. There is a slow shift from
Pakistan to India within the state department and just as Washington
seems willing to ignore friction with New Delhi, it seems to be
heaping snubs on Islamabad.
Can Gujral seize the initiative is the million dollar question.
True, the Gujral doctrine made the Americans sit up and take notice
of India and South Asia. True, the Americans have at last begun
to recognise the vast potential hidden in India's large markets
and its crucial geo-political situation in Asia. True, Robin Raphel
is gone and Karl Inderfurth is the welcome new face of US policy
on South Asia and he is trying hard not to be a Raphel.
But nothing real will happen unless Gujral decides to make
it happen.
New Delhi's attitude so far has been one of uncreative inactivity.
Whether 14 parties make that inevitable or Gujral's heart is
simply not there in forging a new path is debatable. Right now
the White House and the state department are taking their chances
with him but goodwill will run dry unless some counter-proposals
can be seen from the PMO. And talk of India playing a global role
will quickly begin to sound phoney unless New Delhi can exploit
the chances in front of it.
Gujral's stream-of-consciousness speech on Indian foreign policy
in August created a stir in Washington for the pointers it gave
to the PM's mind. Some were bewildered at the stridency of his
thoughts, other wondered if he were still India's ambassador to
Russia. He talked about standing by friends, but he doesn't seem
to have noticed that 'friends' are busy striking their
own deals and unwilling to support New Delhi on major issues.
For many US officials, Gujral seems to live in the past and
hasn't quite made the transition to the new order. Other attribute
these 'Third World' lectures to the compulsions of having
to survive with the support of Left parties. But irritation is
creeping in the PM's tendency to deliver a whack against the West
at every opportunity.
''If he puts half the effort that he does in reviving NAM
into the Indo-US dialogue, things would change. Younger Indians
don't care a fig about NAM,'' said one US official. ''He
comes to New York via Tanzania only so that the US won't be his
first stop." Gujral's apparent 'reluctance'
to change his dates to accommodate Clinton in New York was
duly noted, but the Americans refrained from making a statement.
They recognise that he is too busy 'surviving' as PM
to spend precious political capital on foreign policy.
One area where they await some movement is the stalled Indo-Pak
dialogue, one of the most important foreign policy initiatives
in South Asia. US officials are carefully watching its (lack of)
progress, but staying out of the talks. ''The foreign secretary
can't fix the Indo-Pak dialogue. There has to be some political
push from above,'' said one South Asia watcher.
On the other major frontier-trade-there is dissonance in New Delhi.
The fiasco unfolding at the WTO has once again shown the UF government
is anything but united.
Similarly, in the area of defence co-operation, India once again
has shown extreme reluctance to even meet for the regular annual
encounters agreed to during former defence secretary William Perry's
visit to India in 1995. The Pentagon is wondering whether New
Delhi is interested at all in these talks aimed at increasing
military-to-military co-operation.
Seema Sirohi/Washington
Kind courtesy: Sunday magazine
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