As Atmaram Patel makes bid for power, Vaghela's running out of options
George Iype in New Delhi and Syed Firdaus Ashraf in Bombay
Shankarsinh Vaghela, who split the Bharatiya Janata Party last year to form the Rashtriya Janata Party, may be on his way out as chief minister of Gujarat.
Vaghela, whose support base in the RJP has shrunk swiftly, also finds himself out of favour with the Congress whose legislators keep his government in power.
The man spearheading the campaign against Vaghela is Gujarat Revenue Minister Atmaram Patel. Ironically, Vaghela had used the stripping of Patel -- allegedly by BJP activists owing allegiance to former chief minister Keshubhai Patel at an Ahmedabad rally in May 1996 -- as an excuse to break away from his parent party.
The octogenarian Atmaram Patel travelled to Delhi on Tuesday night to win support from the Congress for his oust-Vaghela campaign. He has already met Congress president Sitaram Kesri twice, as well as senior leaders Oscar Fernandes, Pranab Mukherjee, Ahmed Patel and Madhavsinh Solanki.
"We will not support Atmaram Patel unless we are convinced he can prove his majority in the assembly," Gujarat Congress president C D Patel told Rediff On The NeT in a telephone interview from Delhi. "At this juncture, I think not more than three RJP MLAs are with him. On this basis we cannot support him. Let Atmaram come with some concrete proposal, only can the Congress think of supporting him."
In the 180-member state assembly, the RJP has 90 legislators, including 45 Congress deputies.
Says C D Patel, who wants the Congress central leadership to withdraw support to Vaghela, "To form the government, Atmaram Patel will require the support of all the RJP MLAs. Even if 10 MLAs stay with Vaghela, he cannot form the government."
Atmaram Patel is banking on the fact that he can bridge the differences with the Congress. Most Congress leaders in Gujarat are disillusioned by Vaghela.
They are not the only ones. Even Vaghela's closest associates like Chandansingh Champavat and Kanasinh Mangrola have turned against him.
At his meetings with Kesri & Co, Atmaram Patel asked the Congress to save the RJP government by replacing Vaghela with a more suitable candidate.
Ahmed Patel told Rediff On The NeT that the political situation in Gujarat is "very fluid" and
the Congress has been receiving a number of representations against the chief minister in the past few days.
"The Congress high command has not yet taken any decision on continuing support to Vaghela. But you can expect a final decision any time now," the Congress treasurer said.
Congress leaders are worried that if the party withdraws support to Vaghela, the BJP -- which is 14 short of a majority -- could once again form the government.
"If 15 RJP MLAs join hands with the BJP, then they can form the government without a hitch, averting a mid-term election," C D Patel said.
The BJP says it is not interested in forming a government with the help of RJP defectors. If the Congress wants to avoid a mid-term poll, all it can do is help replace Vaghela with an RJP leader acceptable to state Congress leaders and all the RJP MLAs.
Congress sources said Kesri has indicated that he does not want President's rule to be
imposed in Gujarat. Kesri apparently views the RJP as a potential ally for the next general election.
Vaghela has assigned Industry Minister Dilip Parikh and Finance Minister Banubhai Meghjibhai Shah to solve the crisis in the ruling RJP and bring Atmaram Patel back to the fold. "The differences with Atmaramji can be resolved by discussion," Dilip Parikh told Rediff On The NeT.
In the past week, Vaghela has met C D Patel a number of times in Gandhinagar and New Delhi, in an
effort to mend fences with Gujarat Congress leaders. But the chief minister's overtures have clearly not succeeded; a majority of Congress leaders in the state insist on Vaghela's ouster.
Political developments in Gujarat are similar to the events of 1990 when then chief minister Chimanbhai Patel broke away from the National Front and joined the Congress to stay in power.
When the BJP withdrew support to Chimanbhai Patel’s government along with the National Front government in November 1990, he joined hands with then prime minister Chandra Shekhar to save his government with Congress help.
And when the Congress withdrew support to the Chandra Shekhar government, his Janata Dal (Gujarat) merged with the Congress, saving his government from dismissal.
Asked how different the late Chimanbhai Patel was from Vaghela, a senior state Congress leader quipped, "Chimanbhai was very open. He used to say either let me join the Congress or share power with me. Vaghela wants to spread his base with Congress support and then finish the Congress in Gujarat."
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